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Last night, the Packers defense recorded the first shutout of the NFL season, 34-0 over the Saints (5-10). Now 11-4, Green Bay has clinched a playoff berth for the second consecutive season since trading Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the Jets should try that?
Today: We’re covering your Christmas playoff stakes, holiday cheer in Washington and a quick fantasy preview
Christmas NFL Guide: Tomorrow, Netflix presents …
… the need for another subscription to watch the NFL. Before we explore the latest chapter in streaming, a quick look at the holiday schedule:
Wednesday, December 25 (ET)
- 1 p.m.: Chiefs at Steelers (Netflix)
- 4:30 p.m.: Ravens at Texans (Netflix)
Thursday, December 26
- 8:15 p.m.: Seahawks at Bears (Prime Video)
Earlier this year, Netflix reportedly spent $75 million per game for the exclusive rights to stream these two matchups, plus Christmas games in 2025 (a Thursday) and 2026 (Friday). The league is calling it a “new global holiday tradition.”
Why now? As Richard Deitsch wrote at the time, Netflix wants to scale ad sales, and there are few content plays better then live NFL action — it’s no surprise that Netflix sold out all ad inventory for the two games. But the streaming behemoth hopes these will be more than just football games; Beyonce is performing at halftime in Houston, while Mariah Carey takes the pregame stage in Pittsburgh.
What to expect? The most analogous Netflix-produced live stream is the recent Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight, which experienced major technical issues. Hopefully, Netflix has figured that part out. Otherwise, they’re not taking any chances tomorrow — they outsourced production of these games to CBS and the pre-, halftime and postgame shows to NFL Media.
Per Richard, Netflix also paid between high five figures and low six figures each for one-day contributions by the enormous list of on-air talent, including Fox’s Greg Olsen (calling Ravens-Texans), “Up & Adams” host Kay Adams, ESPN’s Mina Kimes, former players, comedians and even NFL RedZone host Scott Hanson.
We’ll see how this goes. Like it or not, a successful Christmas Day on streaming could foreshadow the future of sports consumption, something the NFL has dominated since the 1960s.
Now, the implications of the games themselves:
What’s at stake in Chiefs-Steelers
The schedule is unprecedented for Wednesday’s four teams, who will have played three games in 11 December days. Since 1933, only one other NFL team has had a similar experience: the 2011 Jaguars, who had a league-high 27 players on IR when they played that third game, losing 41-14.
What a win would mean for each:
For the 14-1 Chiefs: A win clinches them the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which would allow them to rest their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos after those grueling 11 days. (If they lose tomorrow, they could still clinch this week with a Bills loss to the Jets.)
The Chiefs are currently in historic company: Of the 10 teams to start 14-1 or better, seven made the Super Bowl. Bad news: Of those 10, none of the six with point differentials under 200 won the title, and Kansas City’s current margin (plus 78) ranks last in that group.
More bad news: The Chiefs could be without starting RT Jawaan Taylor (knee, limited at practice yesterday), which is poor timing, considering the Steelers’ pass-rushing trio of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig.
For the 10-5 Steelers: A win as three-point home underdogs would end their two-game losing streak and fortify their narrow AFC North lead (and the No. 3 seed).
Despite the Chiefs’ predicament, it’s still difficult to be optimistic for Pittsburgh, as their struggling, injured defense will be without CB Joey Porter Jr. (knee), and Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 against the Steelers, averaging 4.7 passing touchdowns per game with a completion percentage of nearly 80.
Good news: Tomlin said that starting safety DeShon Elliott, CB Donte Jackson and DL Larry Ogunjobi have a “real chance” to play, as does star WR George Pickens.
What’s at stake in Ravens-Texans
Baltimore enters Week 17 as a 5.5-point favorite over the host Texans, with Houston winless against the Ravens since 2014 — including last season’s 34-10 playoff drubbing.
For the 10-5 Ravens: The Ravens have already clinched a playoff berth for the 12th time in HC John Harbaugh’s 17 seasons, notes Jeff Zrebiec in his evaluation of the Ravens AFC North title odds. A victory tomorrow would keep them one Pittsburgh loss away from the AFC North lead (and that Pittsburgh loss might even arrive before Baltimore’s kickoff).
Bad news: If both Pittsburgh and Baltimore win out, the third tiebreaker criteria comes into play: winning percentage against common opponents. Losses to the Raiders, Browns, Eagles and Chiefs would cost the Ravens.
The implications? In the Wild Card round, winning the AFC North means a home matchup likely against the Chargers or Broncos, rather than a road game probably against the Texans. But it matters even more in the Divisional Round, where the No. 3 seed would avoid a trip to Kansas City. Mahomes has never lost a Divisional Round game.
For the 9-6 Texans: A win tomorrow could help move them up from their likely No. 4 seed. According to ESPN’s Playoff Machine, they would then just need a win over the Titans next week and a Steelers loss that might’ve already happened (meaning both sides in this game are rooting for Kansas City beforehand).
Bad news: Houston will be without talented WR Tank Dell, whose 2025 season is in jeopardy after the 25-year-old suffered a dislocated knee and torn ACL. In response, the injury-ravaged Texans claimed Diontae Johnson — who was recently waived after refusing to play for Baltimore.
Now, over to Dianna.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Spirits bright in Washington
On today’s episode of the “Scoop City” podcast, co-host Chase Daniel and I discussed quarterback play, from Michael Penix Jr.’s debut to Kirk Cousins’ future to Jalen Hurts’ absence on Sunday. Chase also had thoughts on the star of Week 16, Jayden Daniels.
“You’re witnessing greatness, honestly,” Chase said. “Breaking him down before the draft, I thought he was the best pure pocket passer — when you really studied Jayden Daniels’ game, he was a really, really good pocket passer who could run like crazy. You’re just starting to see it come together.
“He’s completely changed the next 10 years for the Commanders, and honestly, I think he’s had a better rookie year than what C.J. Stroud did last year. And you knew how crazy we were about C.J. Stroud.”
🎧 More from the podcast: At the three-minute mark, Chase explains why he thought Penix “played a flawless game” in his Falcons debut.
Back to you, Jacob.
Four fantasy notes: Week 17
No. 1: The top-five D/ST starts this week — in order of preference — are the Eagles (vs. Cowboys), Dolphins (at Browns), Buccaneers (vs. Panthers), Chargers (at Patriots) and Colts (vs. Giants). Dark-horse streamer: Seahawks (at Bears).
No. 2: If you need an emergency tight end, consider the Titans’ Chigoziem Okonkwo, who saw 11 targets last week and is being targeted on 23.7 percent of his routes with Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
No. 3: If you need a receiver, Chiefs WR Marquise Brown saw eight targets while playing just 27 percent of snaps in his season debut. He could see even more looks with Kansas City trying to get the ball out quickly against the Steelers pass rush.
No. 4: If you need a running back, good luck. A few options include the Browns’ Jerome Ford (likely unavailable but had 24.1 points last week) or the Cardinals’ Michael Carter (saw the majority of work when James Conner went down, as RB2 Trey Benson was also hurt — though if Benson returns by Saturday, he’s the play). Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins could also play, but I’d expect just a handful of touches.
For more: Read Jake Ciely’s Week 17 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck!
Yesterday’s most-clicked: The Athletic’s Week 16 Takeaways.
For those of you celebrating Christmas or Hanukkah, have a merry one! If you’re not, our best wishes to you all the same. We’ll see you on Friday.
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(Photo: Jason Hanna / Getty Images)
