When the Minnesota Timberwolves face off against the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday night, it will be a matchup of two of the most disappointing teams in the Western Conference.
The Pelicans (7-29) have been mired at the bottom of the conference due to a rash of injuries, as well as a trade that has yet to pan out. The Timberwolves can’t use injuries as an excuse for their 18-17 record, but their significant trade has thrown off their equilibrium, leaving them chasing the good vibes of last season’s conference finals run.
The contract statuses of the main cogs on both teams complicate things. Minnesota’s Julius Randle, acquired from the Knicks in the trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to New York, has a player option on his contract for next season, meaning he can become a free agent this summer if the Wolves do not sign him to an extension.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans dangled Brandon Ingram in trade talks over the offseason, only to find nobody was willing to pay the asking price. Ingram is already extension-eligible but will become an unrestricted free agent if he and the Pelicans (or the team he is traded to before the Feb 6. deadline) don’t reach a deal.
Under the new collective bargaining agreement, so many teams are fearful of locking themselves into expensive contracts for players who don’t win at the highest level. It’s left guys such as Ingram and Randle in awkward spots. They’ve got the talent and track records of players who can impact the game nightly. But any team that may be interested in either of these guys has to ask themselves two tough questions:
Can we be a title contender with Ingram/Randle as one of our two best players? If not, why deal with the financial restrictions that come with paying them max money?
Both situations are lording over the franchises as the trade deadline approaches. Pelicans writer Will Guillory and Timberwolves writer Jon Krawczynski break down the situations.
How did we get here?
Timberwolves: Just two days before the start of training camp, the Wolves made an earth-shaking trade, sending Towns to the Knicks for Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a future first-round draft pick. The motivation for the deal had deep roots in finances with the Wolves needing to address an exploding payroll soon so they could maintain the flexibility to build around 23-year-old star Anthony Edwards. But they also believed the trade with the Knicks would allow them to be competitive this season, with DiVincenzo’s shooting and Randle’s bucket-getting projected to help their struggling offense.
There was little concern among Timberwolves decision-makers about Randle’s contract. They were content to get a long look at him with this team before deciding on his long-term future in Minnesota. Coach Chris Finch knew Randle well from their days together in New Orleans, but there was still uncertainty about how he would fit with this roster.
Pelicans: With so much young talent on the roster and little desire from ownership to pay the luxury tax, the Pelicans were aware they would have to be selective about which players to keep as part of the core surrounding Zion Williamson and which ones to let go. Signing Trey Murphy to a lucrative extension was high on the priority list, which was accomplished in late October. The team also thought it was imperative to find a point guard who could organize the offense and address some of the Pelicans’ ongoing issues with closing out games. That led to the Dejounte Murray acquisition in July.
With all this money being added to the books, it left Ingram as the odd man out heading into the final season of his contract. There were attempts by Ingram and the organization to come to terms on a mutually agreeable extension, but Ingram was persistent in his pursuit of a deal that would pay him near max money.
The Pelicans decided that Ingram’s fit next to Williamson (and Murphy) and the struggles both Ingram and Williamson have had being healthy gave them no choice but to look for a trade. Despite ample searching, the Pelicans couldn’t get their desired compensation for the former All-Star.
Ingram is still a beloved figure in the locker room, and he’s been reluctant to go the Jimmy Butler route to force his way out of New Orleans. But for quite some time, it’s felt like a foregone conclusion that he’d be moved before the end of the season.
How does it look right now?
Timberwolves: Randle’s numbers have been good in Minnesota. He is averaging 20.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, before Monday’s game against the LA Clippers. Finch has been an advocate of Randle, liking his ability to create open jumpers for his teammates when he bullies his way to the paint. There have been some real highs this season for Randle and the Timberwolves.
But the Timberwolves have the 21st-ranked offense in the league with the Randle-Edwards-Rudy Gobert trio not meshing well on the court through 35 games. Randle and Edwards both love to operate in isolation, and that has resulted in some stagnant offense.
Randle’s ball-watching on defense has been the bigger detriment. The Wolves have dropped from No. 1 last season to eighth this season in defensive rating with Randle, Gobert and Jaden McDaniels all deserving some blame.
The clunkiness has very much called into question Randle’s future in Minnesota.
Pelicans: The Pelicans have the second-worst record in the NBA, Ingram’s out indefinitely with an ankle injury and the team is 2-16 this season without Ingram. Not great.
While he was healthy, Ingram looked like he was on the verge of having one of the best statistical seasons of his career. He was averaging 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists before his injury.
At one point, he was carrying the team while just about everyone else in the when-healthy rotation was injured. He also showed significant improvement as a 3-point shooter, long a criticism of his game. Ingram was up to 6.4 3-point attempts per game this season after falling below four per game each of the previous two seasons. He was making them at a 37 percent clip.
Ingram’s slowly progressing toward a return, and there’s a strong possibility the Pelicans will see Ingram and Williamson on the court together for a stretch before the deadline. But with the Pels’ season already in the dumpster, I’m not sure there’s much either can do to change the trajectory of where this thing is headed.
How are the vibes?
Timberwolves: Despite the sub-optimal start to this season, I don’t have the sense that the lack of chemistry has anything to do with personality conflicts. Randle’s quiet disposition is a marked difference from the loud and fun-loving Towns, but his fit in the locker room has been smooth. Randle has spoken glowingly of how he has been welcomed by his teammates, coaches and fans around town. He has said more than once that he could see himself being in Minnesota for the long haul with his family enjoying the wide-open space afforded them here as opposed to life in New York City.
There have been frustrations with how things have panned out on the court, and the body language of the group was concerning in a loss in Detroit on Saturday. But it feels like the source of that angst is related strictly to basketball.
Randle, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can all be free agents this summer, and those financial uncertainties can always play a role in a team’s chemistry. Randle has rarely appeared to force things to get his numbers up and make himself more attractive in free agency or to the Wolves. The Wolves have been pushing him to be more aggressive, something Randle has been a little reluctant to do.
Pelicans: Despite the team’s disastrous season and the uncertainty surrounding his future, Ingram has continued to be a positive influence in the locker room. He’s even spent time rehabbing around the team in recent weeks when he could’ve easily gone away until the team found a trade destination for him.
Ultimately, the best thing for Ingram would be getting back on the court in the next few weeks to show potential suitors he’s healthy enough to help a playoff contender during the second half of the regular season. Still, it’s tough to escape the awkwardness knowing how unlikely it is that he’ll be back next season.
What are the options?
Timberwolves: If the Timberwolves wanted to secure a longer-term deal with Randle, there are two options. First, Randle could decline the $31 million player option he has for next season and sign a new multi-year deal immediately. That would be similar to what Gobert did on the day of the season opener when he declined the $46.6 million player option he had for next season and signed a new, three-year, $110 million extension that will kick in next season.
Randle’s second option for staying in Minnesota would be to exercise that player option and sign an extension off the back of it. That could not be done until after this season is over and is an unlikely option for the Wolves. Typically in these cases, the team would be looking to offer the player long-term security in exchange for the player reducing his annual salary to give the team more financial flexibility.
Randle also could wait until the end of the season, opt out of his contract and become a free agent to sign elsewhere. If he doesn’t like the way the winds are blowing before the market opens, he could exercise his option, play next season in Minnesota for $31 million and then try to sign a long-term deal at a later date.
Pelicans: Ingram is technically extension-eligible until the start of free agency. The Pels could carve out enough room under the tax to give him a reasonable deal. With such a shortage of teams that’ll have cap space next summer, the best hope for Ingram and his team would be a trade to a destination that makes it easier to sign that next big-money contract. Finding it in unrestricted free agency would be difficult.
There are some within the organization who believe Ingram’s best chance of finding both the things he wants — a winning situation and a big contract — is by remaining in New Orleans. But the team has committed to having a core led by Williamson, Murphy, Murray and Herb Jones. It’s tough to see how Ingram can fit into that equation.
San Antonio and Miami are two destinations that would make a lot of sense for Ingram. The biggest questions are how much would either of them be willing to give up to get Ingram in the building, and are the Pelicans willing to allow the deadline to pass without getting anything in return for Ingram?
What will happen?
Timberwolves: If the Wolves continue to underwhelm as they have most of this season, it’s hard to see them signing Randle to a long-term deal. One of the primary reasons they made the trade was to give them some financial and roster-building freedom going forward to build competitive teams around Edwards. All decisions made will be made based on what is best for Edwards, as they should be. If the partnership with Randle isn’t quite there, my guess is the Wolves will look to reshuffle the decks a bit, either by letting Randle walk in free agency or looking to trade him. The question becomes, what is Randle’s trade value? Is there a market for him out there where the Wolves could get a player back that will help them more than he does?
There is still a month before the deadline and roughly three months left in the regular season, which offers time for the situation to improve. In Gobert’s first season, the fit looked so bad that it led to speculation the Wolves could move off him after just one year. They stuck with it, and Gobert helped lead them to the conference finals last season, earning his extension. Ideally, it wouldn’t take a full season for them to work through the kinks with Randle, but the Wolves have shown patience in the past when the public has panicked.
Reid’s future could influence the decision. He can be a free agent this summer as well, and he has been considered a part of the team’s young core. Minnesota risks losing him in free agency if he decides he does not want to come off the bench for another season in Minnesota.
Pelicans: It’s difficult to map out where Ingram ends up next and what his next contract will look like. But I find it hard to believe the Pelicans will pass up on a chance to acquire a few future assets in favor of watching Ingram walk for nothing.
Even though the return in a trade might not be what many people believe Ingram is worth, it’s better than being left empty-handed.
At the very least, there should be one or two contenders that consider adding Ingram to the mix for a title run without a clear plan for his next contract. It’s a big risk, but a deep playoff run could sway how Ingram feels about his next home — and his willingness to take less on a new deal.
Ingram is the best player the Pels could realistically put next to Williamson in the next two years and New Orleans appears to be one of the few teams who have been open to the idea of giving him a long-term deal that pays him north of the $36 million salary he’s making this season.
However, the moves the Pelicans have made over the last six months show that they’re ready to see a different version of this team. It’s hard to blame them. Would anyone be excited about the idea of Williamson and Ingram trying to make it work one more time in Year 7?
While his future remains very uncertain, Ingram not being in New Orleans feels like a safe bet.
(Top photos of Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle: Neville E. Guard and Stephen Lew / Imagn Images)
