We’re two weeks away from the playoffs, which means it’s time to feel a sense of irrational panic over any team that isn’t red hot.
The key word here is “irrational,” because as we’ve covered before, seeding and home ice don’t matter as much as you’d think in today’s NHL and late-season momentum means even less. As long as you make the playoffs, whatever happens down the stretch isn’t all that important. Usually. Sometimes. You know what, that applies to everyone but your team, you are all in trouble.
See? Irrational panic is fun. And as we close out the schedule, here are five teams that I’m starting to worry about.
Bonus Five: Playoff teams I’m getting worried about
5. Nashville Predators — This feels like a weird pick, since they’re still not all that far removed from that epic 18-game point streak. But since it ended, they’re just 2-4-0, a stretch that included two games where they’ve been shut out and two where they gave up seven goals or more. That feels like a bad combination, and while it hasn’t threatened their playoff hopes, it’s made them feel a lot less invincible than they did just two weeks ago.
4. Winnipeg Jets — There was a time when the Jets were right there with the Stars and Avalanche in the Central debate, and even a few weeks where they were above them. Not lately, with a six-game losing streak pushing them down to third in the division. They snapped that this week and had won 14 of 19 before that, with a five-game losing streak coming before that. In other words, this team might just be especially streaky, which isn’t the worst thing to be in a league where getting hot in the playoffs is everything. With road games against the Predators, Stars and Avalanche this week, we’ll get a sense of exactly where the Jets are at.
3. Vancouver Canucks — After rolling over the league for the first 50 games of the season, the Canucks have won just 13 of 27 since. Some of this is the Thatcher Demko injury, and they’re still likely to finish first in Pacific, but this team hasn’t been great for two months now. Again, I’m putting it out there for Vancouver fans to get their head around: You are not going to enjoy seeing how many “experts” go against the Canucks in their playoff picks. Get your nobody-believes-in-us narratives started now.
2. Philadelphia Flyers — I’m a little hesitant to include the Flyers here, if only because I did say we were listing playoff teams and, well … you know. But they have to be here because no team in the league with anything to play for has gone as cold as the Flyers, who’ve lost seven straight. The losing streak is bad enough, especially when they’re dropping games to the Blue Jackets, but the Flyers haven’t strung together even two straight wins since the second week of February. It’s all coincided with the latest installment of the John Tortorella Show, a long-running drama in which the veteran coach benches somebody or insults his own team or offers up a self-aggrandizing sound bite. When his team wins, he gets a pass. His team isn’t winning right now, and it looks like it will cost them the playoff spot they’ve spent all year clinging to.
1. Florida Panthers — Three weeks ago I called them the league’s new villains, in part because they were so good. Apparently they took that personally because they’ve been bad ever since. They’ve lost nine of their last 12, including Saturday’s OT loss to Boston. Even worse, that stretch has included losses to the Bruins (twice), Maple Leafs, Hurricanes, Lightning and Rangers, a group of teams that taken together are pretty much the entire path out of the Eastern Conference. Panthers fans know this may not matter because last year they had their coach throwing tantrums around this time and ultimately backed into the playoffs, and that turned out fine. But for a team that looked like it was hitting its stride just a few weeks ago, all sorts of warning signs are blinking here.
On to this week’s rankings …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Leon Draisaitl hits 40, Connor McDavid is one assist away from 100 (which should be a way bigger deal), and the Oilers’ next game is a potential first-round preview with the Golden Knights.
5. Boston Bruins (46-17-5, +47 true goals differential*) — We can pretty much call the Atlantic, with the Bruins moving to five points up on the Panthers with only four to play. That also means we’re knocking the Panthers out of the Top 5 for the first time in eight weeks.
Now the target is top spot in the East, which would be the difference between playing a second wild-card team that will probably finish with fewer than 90 points in the first round, or being stuck with Tampa or Toronto. The schedule isn’t especially friendly, with Carolina tomorrow followed by Pittsburgh and Washington, two teams that should be playing for their playoff lives. Even their finale with the Senators is the second night of a back-to-back.
4. Carolina Hurricanes (49-22-7, +61) — They hit the one-spot in the Other Rankings a week ago, only to drop all the way down to fifth this week. They’re holding steady at four here, a spot they’ve held for a month straight. They’ve got the Bruins tomorrow in what will be their last game of the season against a playoff team.
3. Colorado Avalanche (48-24-6, +51) — It was a big test weekend for the Avs, who drew the Oilers and Stars. Friday’s showdown with Edmonton didn’t go well, with a regulation loss that also cost them Mikko Rantanen for at least a little while. They lost again Sunday night, so yeah, not a great few days.
2. Dallas Stars (49-20-9, +62) — I don’t fully understand all the analytics mumbo jumbo so I’m just going to choose to interpret this as the Stars didn’t want it bad enough.
The Stars just lost a game where shot attempts were 90-33 for them and xG were 4.1 to 0.9 for them. That’s hockey baby
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) April 6, 2024
1. New York Rangers (53-21-4, +53) — Finally, the Rangers are back in the top spot. Is it because they’re on track for what will seem like an easy first-round matchup? Maybe. Did I finally decide to listen to all those New York fans constantly complaining about a lack of respect even though their team was ranked second in a 32-team league? Perhaps. Is it because Colorado and Dallas were playing late on Sunday, after my deadline, and so I’m playing it safe by putting the Rangers in here in case that game ends up being a blowout and I guessed wrong? No further questions.
In case you were wondering about my opinion on this week’s biggest story, Fight Night at MSG between the Rangers and Devils: I thought it was great. Sorry. I know that’s a bit of an outdated take, one that’s apparently at odds with many of my colleagues, who want you to know how much they roll their eyes at this stuff. And I get that, to an extent. If you’re against fighting in the NHL because of player safety, I’m with you. But from a pure entertainment standpoint, I’m sorry, this stuff is still great. There’s a reason you saw roughly 400 clips of the brawl in your social feeds that night, even from people who were telling you how much they hated it. On some basic caveman level, the first two seconds of that game were a highlight of the season.
Great job by everyone involved. (Except for the referees who took game management to new heights, exploiting the secondary fight rule to throw eight players out of the game. Paul Devorski would never.)
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Pittsburgh Penguins — Is this actually happening? It’s going to happen, isn’t it?
One week after a loss to the Blue Jackets that seemed to spell the end of their fading playoff hopes, the Penguins just ran off a four-win week. It culminated in Saturday’s wild win, one that saw them blow a 4-1 third-period lead to the Lightning only to get a late power-play goal to rescue the win. That stretch also included a victory over the first-place Rangers, plus a crucial regulation win over the Capitals and a knockout punch that spelled the end of the Devils.
It’s been kind of ridiculous, as a team whose own GM had given up on them at the deadline now looks like the only bubble team that actually wants an Eastern playoff spot. With no Jake Guentzel, they’ve got points in eight straight. This is really happening.
It’s led to some late-breaking Sidney Crosby Hart Trophy love, and sure, let’s go with that. Crosby’s been a phenomenal story, having yet another fantastic year at 36. Remember way back when we were wondering if the Penguins should move him to a contender? You should because it was like two weeks ago. Rob shot that down, and rightly so, and now here we are. Things change fast, especially in a playoff race where nobody else can string a few wins together.
What changed? These sorts of late-season shifts can be complicated and contributing factors can be many, but let’s just say it: It was the bobbleheads. When the Penguins win the Stanley Cup in a few months, the movie about the Seal Team 68 recovery mission is going to be fantastic.
There’s still the lingering question of whether any of this will actually be good for the Penguins. If they end up just missing the playoffs, or they make it but go out quickly to the Rangers or Hurricanes, does their late push change the offseason plan for Kyle Dubas? Does somebody in ownership or the front office decide that this team is still a Cup contender after all, and push more chips into the middle of the table that they’ll only regret someday?
Maybe. We can figure that out later. For now, Penguins fans are getting one heck of a late-season ride, one that feels like it’s come out of nowhere. Whether it matters much in the long run isn’t the point, at least for now. It’s fun, the way sports fandom is supposed to be. Like a stolen truck full of bobbleheads, let’s sit back and see where this all ends up.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last, and the best lottery odds for Macklin Celebrini.
The other big moment from that Penguins/Lightning game was a scary injury to referee Steve Kozari, who was stretchered off after colliding with Haydn Fleury. The good news is that as bad as it looked in the moment, Kozari is expected to be OK.
5. Arizona Coyotes (33-39-5, -19) — The big news this week was the arena plan, which does look pretty cool.
The wait is finally over!
Introducing the new arena that the Coyotes plan to build in North Phoenix off of Scottsdale Road & the 101 freeway. #YotesForever
For More Info: https://t.co/PzpKDqasMr pic.twitter.com/B3S6cjleA3
— Arizona Coyotes (@ArizonaCoyotes) April 5, 2024
Of course, it’s a little bit easier to make a nice model than it is to actually build up this whole city block scenario, but every step forward counts for this team.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets (26-40-12, -58) — If you’re a fan of a team in this section, or one that’s hovering around the fringes, make sure you check out my recent attempt to find hope for the NHL’s most hopeless teams. It also includes a ranking of just how hopeless each situation feels, in case you were wondering how miserable you should be. The Blue Jackets did not rank first on their list, which seems to have come as a surprise to their fans.
Also, congratulations to the Blue Jackets for tying a record that nobody knew existed.
3. Anaheim Ducks (25-48-5, -90) — The Ducks still have a shot at finishing the year at a minus-100 goals differential. With the Sharks already there and the Hawks on pace, it would be the first season since 1985 that three teams all hit the mark. And you thought there was nothing for these teams to play for down the stretch.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (23-49-5, -99) — Hruby Thruby gets it, folks.
GOLD PLAN (cc @DownGoesBrown )
— xthrubyx (@HrubyThruby) April 6, 2024
Mark has more on the strong finish, and what it could mean.
1. San Jose Sharks (18-51-8, -140) — They haven’t had many highlights this year. Let’s enjoy this one:
Also, be sure the check out the highlights of Devin Cooley‘s mom watching her son in what would end up being his first NHL win.
Not ranked: St. Louis Blues — Well, they tried.
Give them credit, the Blues gave it a shot. Despite the hockey gods clearly having zero interest in serving up any kind of Western Conference playoff race, the Blues hung in there and at least gave the rest of us a chance to pretend into April. Barely.
The act expired on Thursday night, with a disappointing 6-3 loss in Nashville. It was a classic four-point swing game, one that saw the Blues fall behind 4-1 before almost clawing their way back. It left them eight points back of Nashville and seven back of the Kings, and that was it. The Western field was set.
The end result was a weird sight on the projections page heading into the weekend: The Wild, with zero percent playoff chances and the dreaded white bar across the postseason rounds that goes with it, sat with a 90-point outlook that left them sitting above five Eastern teams that are still in the thick of things. That’s a tough break for the Blues, and one that probably has their fans willing to listen to Eric’s 1 vs. 16 playoff pitch. But at the end of the day, there was a playoff spot there for the taking, and the Blues just weren’t good enough.
Beyond that, it’s been a tough season to parse; it was fitting that the lead-up to that crushing loss to the Predators saw the Blues lose to the awful Sharks and then beat the Oilers. Losing to the worst team in the league and beating the possible Cup winner in a little over 24 hours is maybe a little bit on the nose,
It’s been a year of inconsistency, one that cost Craig Berube his job. The Drew Bannister bounce looked like it might save the season, but after a 13-6-1 start, they’ve pretty much gone back to being a .500 team — including a loss to the Sharks on Saturday. That leaves Doug Armstrong with a call to make behind the bench, to go along with a long list of roster questions.
The good news is there’s plenty of time to figure it all out. That includes the next few weeks, as Blues fans watch Eastern teams that aren’t as quite as good battle it out for a playoff spot they won’t get near.
(Top photos of Evgeni Malkin and Matthew Tkachuk: Gene J. Puskar / Associated Press and Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
