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Luka Dončić has a calf contusion. Let me address you directly, basketball gods: We’re not doing this crap this year. Knock it off!
Under the Radar: We should be talking about the Bucks and Suns
I was looking at the 2025 championship odds on BetMGM earlier this week and couldn’t believe my eyes! (OK, that’s a bit dramatic.) The reality is the teams at the top of the list all make sense from a betting/hype standpoint. The defending champion Celtics have the lowest odds (+325). No surprise there. The Knicks, fresh off the acquisition of Karl-Anthony Towns, are tied with the Thunder for the next-best (+650). Those make sense. The 76ers (+1000), Mavericks (+1100), Timberwolves (+1100) and Nuggets (+1200) round out the next four squads.
It all checks. The Sixers made a big roster transformation, the Mavs beefed up their squad after a finals appearance, the Timberwolves are still an excellent team with a budding star and the Nuggets still employ Nikola Jokić. But it feels a little off to me that the Bucks (+1400) and Suns (+1500) are not higher or more highly regarded as title contenders going into this season.
You can look at those odds and say they’re right there with that third-tier cluster of teams. And technically that’s true. But you don’t really hear people talking about the way the Bucks and Suns have potentially fixed their most problematic situations from a season ago. Meanwhile, everybody is talking about the teams ahead of them.
Milwaukee reminder:
The Bucks are not that far removed from their 2021 NBA title. Yes, the Doc Rivers of it all can be confusing, as he tends to make excuses more than solutions for his team’s issues. And Khris Middleton isn’t starting out healthy. But this team was a preseason favorite a year ago for a reason. I suspect this team will surprise a lot of people this year. The Bucks just need to play solid defense and keep the Dame-Giannis two-man game rolling. Elsewhere…
Phoenix reminder:
- Won 49 games last season despite not employing a single point guard.
- Had a top-10 offense and top-13 defense.
- Bradley Beal missed 29 games.
- Hired Mike Budenholzer (69.3 win percentage with Milwaukee) as coach in May.
- Signed Tyus Jones and Monte Morris to run the point. Everybody sounds relieved to have point guards.
- Signed Mason Plumlee as a backup big.
This Suns team is dangerous. They have far better structure from a roster standpoint now with proper depth. Budenholzer’s system paired with their offensive talent should produce a top-three offense. His defense could get them into the top 10 easily. And the Suns have so much firepower at the top that a relatively healthy season should result in a top-three seed in the West. I get they were swept and embarrassed in the first round, but this team looks far more like a title contender now.
The Bucks and Suns at least have a shot to end up with a 2021 NBA Finals rematch in June. They aren’t favorites, but they are very real threats.
John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images
Are these really franchise guys of the future?
I don’t want to be a Negative Don Nelson here, but when thinking about the future of four struggling franchises, it’s fair to wonder if they have the right guys in place to carry them out of the cellar. The Raptors are rebuilding around a young forward. The Pistons are hoping their young star can lift them from being … the worst. The Blazers are in a teardown and looking for their next star guard. And the Hornets are trying to stop being the Bobcats.
Let’s look at the guys these teams have for the task at hand and hit them with a Confidence Meter score (scale of 1-5):
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors: Made the All-Star Game last year, and the 23-year-old, do-it-all forward is only the second player in NBA history to average 19 points, eight rebounds, six assists, one steal and 1.5 blocks for a season (Kevin Garnett is the other). The Raptors only had 13 games between Pascal Siakam getting traded and Barnes getting shut down for the season due to injury. They were 6-7 in those games with Barnes averaging 18.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks.
He needs to be a better shooter and learn to lead, but I definitely believe in him as a franchise guy when the Raptors aren’t outright tanking. Confidence meter: 🦕🦕🦕🦕
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons: I was super high on Cunningham when he was the top pick in 2021. I liked him after his first year, but I have soured on the 23-year-old since. To be fair, he needs actual help and competence around him before we can judge if he’s the real deal. Just to put things in perspective, look at his first three years versus Devin Booker’s first three. Cunningham’s numbers are better. Booker played 70 more games, though. Detroit has won roughly 30 percent of its games with Cunningham. Phoenix won 33.6 percent of its games with Booker over his first three years. Confidence meter: 🚘🚘🚘
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers: This may be controversial, but I still believe in Henderson. He was not very good in his rookie season. He averaged 14 points, 5.4 assists and 3.4 turnovers, and he had an ugly 48.9 true shooting percentage. He said what he learned from his rookie season was “food.” Seriously. Still, that all doesn’t mean the 20-year-old is a bust or close to it.
I looked at rookies who are 6-foot-3 or shorter, played at least 1,700 minutes and had a field goal percentage under 40. It gave us a list of 17 guys in history, including Henderson. But guys like Nick Van Exel, Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker are also on that list. One more name? His coach, Chauncey Billups. Henderson will be fine and feasting soon. Confidence meter: 🌲🌲
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets: I still hold out hope for Ball. His franchise has been awful and he’s been pretty unhealthy with his ankle the last two seasons (missed 106 games). But the Hornets have a 44.5 win percentage with him in four seasons (not terrible) and the 23-year-old has career averages of 20 points, 7.4 assists and 6.2 rebounds. Maybe the new regime can help turn around his fortunes and trajectory. Confidence meter: 🐝🐝🐝
NBA Roster Nerdout: Something rare happened in the Towns trade
Were you wondering this week why it took so long to get the Karl-Anthony Towns trade finalized? It was actually a super complicated process to complete the deal, including something extremely rare and unheard of. Slap a pocket protector in your shirt, hike up your pants and let’s nerd out on what happened — here are the final details of the trade:
- Minnesota acquires Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop and a 2025 protected first (via Detroit).
- New York acquires Towns, draft rights to James Nnaji (2023 31st pick).
- Charlotte acquires DaQuan Jeffries, Charlie Brown (not that one), Duane Washington Jr. and three second-round picks.
The Knicks also reportedly waived Marcus Morris Sr. and Chuma Okeke in order to free up the roster flexibility they needed to get all of this to happen under the cap. The rare thing about this trade getting done comes down to Washington, who got moved to Charlotte:
- Washington signed with Partizan Belgrade in the Adriatic Basketball League in August. (But you actually can’t sign in two different leagues at the same time.)
- The Knicks had to facilitate a buyout between Washington and Partizan.
- After the buyout, Washington agreed to a sign-and-trade to send him to Charlotte.
- Charlotte will buy him out of his new deal, netting him over a million dollars.
- He will sign back with Partizan Belgrade in time for their upcoming EuroLeague games.
The Knicks’ CBA expert, Brock Aller, cracked his knuckles and went to work. New York had to get around a rule that restricts teams from stacking a bunch of minimum contracts into a deal to get it done, so they paid Washington above the minimum (along with Brown and Jeffries in their respective sign-and-trade deals). But Fred Katz says they paid just $1 above the minimum. This is some real CBA nerding and we love it. If they don’t put this complicated option in NBA 2K26, we riot! 🤓
Bounce Passes
Forget the trade rumors. Zach LaVine is fully healthy and ready to embrace his situation.
Is this Russell Westbrook thing really going to work in Denver?
How are the Knicks going to maximize KAT? Also, our Celtics and Knicks writers discussed how KAT’s addition changes things in the East.
Yesterday, we gave you some teams John Hollinger thinks will exceed expectations. Today? Five teams who will fall short.
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(Top photo: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)
