With NHL action winding down, the offseason is just gearing up. Free agency is just weeks away and while a lot of focus will rightfully be on unrestricted free agents, there is a skilled class of restricted free agents worth keeping an eye on.
Let’s take a look at 15 of the top restricted free agents and what their next contracts might look like.
Forwards
Lucas Raymond, Detroit Red Wings
Previous contract: Three years x $925,000 AAV
Raymond elevated his game down the stretch with season-saving plays to keep Detroit in the playoff picture as long as possible. The Red Wings were a better team in his minutes on both ends of the ice, thanks to his puck-moving and shot-making.
LUCAS RAYMOND. SEASON SAVING GOAL. 🚨
30TH OF THE SEASON. INSANE KEEP BY GHOST. TIE GAME. #LGRW pic.twitter.com/7JP5vr05JN
— Ryan Hana (@RyanHanaWWP) April 16, 2024
And that could be what gets Raymond paid this summer.
Teams are trending toward bigger contracts after entry-level deals expire to capture those prime years and avoid overpaying down the line. While there’s always a chance a young player wants to bet on himself with a bridge deal, he seems like a prime target for a maximum contract. That’s what Evolving Hockey projects as the most likely outcome for Raymond, with a seven-year deal carrying a $7.7 million cap hit.
Right now, that contract would be perfectly in line with his average market value over the next seven years according to The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. Considering Raymond’s peaks this season and trajectory forward, it’s a safe bet he will outperform that value over the next few seasons.
Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes
Previous contract: Three years x $894,167 AAV
Like Raymond, Jarvis comes into contract negotiations off a breakout year. His play earned him a real bump in playing time this season — about 2:33 on average from last year — and importance on the Hurricanes. Not only did Jarvis pick up the pace offensively, but his defensive game developed. He was trusted to shut down top competition and help turn defensive situations into offensive opportunities, which earned him some Selke buzz for the first time.
That should translate into his next contract. His market value, which is based on the number of wins a player of his caliber would be worth on the open market, is $11 million on average over the next eight years. Few restricted free agents have the leverage to exceed that number, so it serves more as an ultimate ceiling. And it’s a good vibe check against Evolving Hockey’s projections. In Jarvis’ case, that’s an eight-year deal with an $8.5 million cap hit, which looks awfully cost-effective in comparison.
While Jarvis seems like an ideal player to lock up sooner than later considering how high his value already is, there are some wild cards to consider — from Carolina’s change in management this summer to the long list of free agents it has to extend or replace.
Anton Lundell, Florida Panthers
Previous contract: Three years x $925,000 AAV
How Florida proceeds with UFAs Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour will decide how much cap space there is (or isn’t) to invest in Lundell.
Unlike Jarvis and Raymond, Lundell isn’t coming off a breakout year, even though he seemed primed for one after a solid 2022-23 campaign. While he upped his scoring pace from last year, his five-on-five impacts dipped relative to his teammates on both ends of the ice in the regular season. So a bridge deal could be the easy answer here.
But there is recency bias to consider. Lundell’s reminded everyone of his “Baby Barkov” potential this postseason which could benefit him if there’s extra cap space in Florida. Evolving Hockey projects a two-year deal carrying a $3.4 million cap hit as the most likely outcome, but his playoff performance may help push him closer to his market value in the $4 million range.
Matty Beniers, Seattle Kraken
Previous Contract: Three years x $897,500
Sometimes when a player slips offensively in a contract year, they only get offered a “show me” deal. But Beniers could still get the franchise player treatment this summer with a big second contract.
Evolving Hockey projects a seven-year deal with a $7 million AAV. That may seem like a major jump for a player with just 167 NHL games of experience and 103 points. But Beniers was far from the only player in Seattle to take a step back offensively this season (which likely contributed to management making changes behind the bench). And he still impressed on the other end of the ice: Beniers’ defensive game showed the makings of a future two-way star with his ability to retrieve pucks efficiently and drive play out of his own zone with control.
Via All Three Zones
Ron Francis generally doesn’t sign deals of this magnitude, but he could buck that trend for someone with star potential. Even after a down year, a $7 million cap hit would be considered below market value for him, so the cost-efficiency likely would grow from here. If not, a bridge could be the temporary solution.
Quinton Byfield, Los Angeles Kings
Previous contract: Three years x $894,167 AAV
Byfield, who was drafted a year earlier than Beniers at No. 2, is also up for a new contract. His path to becoming an NHL regular may not have been as smooth as Beniers’, but he arrived in 2023-24.
Can that translate to a long-term deal now? That’s the big question in Los Angeles. Byfield has spiked his value from a year ago, but the Kings may not be able to make a big bet on their rising star just yet — not with decisions looming on defense around Matt Roy, the PL Dubois situation and even bigger questions in goal.
A bridge deal could benefit both sides here. It would give Byfield time to show that this year was a true reflection of his ability and raise his value even higher, and it would give the Kings some time to lower costs; they will have $7 million of cap space available in two years when the Anze Kopitar deal expires.
Dawson Mercer, New Jersey Devils
Previous contract: Three years x $894,167 AAV
Mercer has become an important supporting player around the Devils’ core because he brings a complementary skill set that can give their top nine more dimension. He’s the type of player who can take a dangerous pass and convert it into a prime scoring opportunity with his shooting. He can keep up off the rush and be counted on to fire quick one-timers. Plus, he pressures opponents and recovers dump-ins to extend offensive zone time.
But even with all of that in mind, he probably isn’t a candidate for a long-term deal right now — especially after taking a step back from his 2022-23 season.
That, paired with the fact there are already a handful of long-term deals to navigate around in New Jersey, may make a short-term deal the most likely path forward. Similar to Lundell, his projected contract — a two-year deal worth $3.8 million — is about a million less than his market value. That gives the team some leeway if keeping Mercer under $4 million seems unrealistic. But the cheaper management can go here, the more money available to spend on a goaltender.
Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes
Previous contract: Two years x $3 million AAV
Mercer’s only 22, so the fact he didn’t follow up his breakout season isn’t as much of a red flag. He has a shorter track record. With Necas, it’s a little different now that he’s 25 years old. Unlike Mercer, he’s already played out his bridge deal and is now looking for a third contract.
A long-term deal is probably out of the question in Carolina considering its list of pending free agents. So option number one is another short-term deal. That gives Necas a chance to prove 2022-23 wasn’t just an aberration and that he can be a difference-maker in the top six.
A one-year deal could be in both of their interests. Evolving Hockey has that coming in at $6.2 million, but that’s $1 million above his market value and likely more than Carolina can (or would want to) afford. And that’s what could make him a trade or offer-sheet target for other teams. Either path would give Necas a clean slate elsewhere and buy Carolina more cap space to work with.
Casey Mittelstadt, Colorado Avalanche
Previous contract: Three years x $2.5 million
Trading for Mittelstadt solved the Avalanche’s 2C problem. Post-deadline he kept up with Colorado’s speed game better than expected and rounded out its top six as a stable playmaker.
Colorado faces two big questions regarding cap space: Gabriel Landeskog’s availability for next season and where it stands with Valeri Nichushkin. That’s around $13 million up in the air for management until there is clarity on either front.
So there isn’t much leeway to go big with Mittelstadt, which would be out of character for Colorado for anyone outside of the core, anyway. A mid-term contract would be more in line with management’s tendencies and Evolving Hockey’s projection. The model points to a three-year deal worth about $5.8 million a year on average, which is slightly below Mittelstadt’s market value. If management wants more long-term stability at 2C with the 25-year-old, there could be leeway for a little more term without the price skyrocketing.
Via Evolving Hockey
Defensemen
Moritz Seider, Detroit Red Wings
Previous contract: Three years x $863,333 AAV
Raymond isn’t the only major RFA in Detroit; management also has to decide how to proceed with Seider.
Seider’s situation is much different because he didn’t have an explosive 2023-24; his play suffered from extreme defensive usage. And that could give management some pause about jumping to a long-term deal this soon.
A bridge saves them some cap space in the short term, which gives Detroit more room to improve around Raymond and Seider without making any big subtractions. The question is whether those savings are enough, or if this could burn management in a few years.
Evolving Hockey projects a $5.6 million cap hit for a short-term deal. A six-year deal kicks the AAV up to $7.7 million. That is below the threshold for most franchise defensemen but above his projected market value over the next six years. Seider’s market value could increase as he progresses and the team around him improves, making this a cost-effective deal in the long run. But this type of commitment carries risk if his game plateaus defensively or his offense remains stunted.
Filip Hronek, Vancouver Canucks
Previous contract: Three years x $4.4 million AAV
The Hronek situation will be a tricky one for Vancouver to navigate after his game declined down the stretch and into the playoffs.
The Canucks sunk significant assets to acquire him last deadline, which could be a motivating factor to make this work. But the key factor management has to keep front of mind is how well he pairs with Quinn Hughes. Their franchise cornerstone credits his mainstay partner with helping him reach this year’s heights.
With its cap situation and team needs in mind, Vancouver can’t afford to pay him anything near his market value ($7.7 million on average over the next six years). Something in the $6 million range could be more palatable. The problem is the player is coming off a $5.5 million salary this year, and anything in the low sixes won’t seem like much of a raise. And in this case, Hronek has leverage as a 26-year-old right-handed defenseman with arbitration rights.
Ryan Lindgren, New York Rangers
Previous contract: Three years x $3 million AAV
Like Hronek, Lindgren is the mainstay partner of his team’s defensive ace. Adam Fox and Lindgren have been together for the bulk of their NHL careers for good reason — they complement each other and make for a reliable top pair who can be deployed in any situation.
But Lindgren’s game took a step back this year. For the first time in his NHL career, he wasn’t a positive on the team’s expected goal suppression relative to his teammates. And the Rangers created less in his five-on-five minutes as well. That’s kept his market value around $3.4 million a year on average over the next six years, which slides below Evolving Hockey’s $4.8 million projection for the same term.
Via HockeyViz
This year’s decline, paired with the durability factor, makes this a tough decision for New York. Lindgren may bring heart-and-soul vibes, but those types of players generally don’t age well; their bodies can only hold up in that role for so long. That may motivate management to advocate for another short or mid-range contract.
Sean Durzi, Utah
Previous contract: Two years x $1.7 million AAV
It’s been a whirlwind couple of months for the Coyotes franchise. But now in Utah, they have a new owner with a completely different mentality around team investment. One area that needs serious investment is the blue line, which currently has zero defensemen under contract.
Durzi was essentially the Coyotes’ No. 1 this past season, but that’s not a role Utah should necessarily try to replicate. He was over-leveraged in Arizona, and with the right additions, could be slotted more appropriately in a top-four capacity. So management should probably reserve the big, long-term deals for a true No. 1 and maybe stick to the mid-term range with Durzi.
Evolving Hockey’s four-year, $5.8 million projection seems like a relatively safe bet that comes in below his market value.
Timothy Liljegren, Toronto Maple Leafs
Previous contract: Two years x $1.4 million AAAV
Another disappointing Round 1 exit later, the Leafs have big decisions to make at every position.
While most restricted free agents are generally viewed as shoe-ins to return, management may take a look at their options with Liljegren when tweaking the blue line. The 25-year-old has struggled under pressure and his arbitration rights may seem like a daunting hurdle in their offseason path — especially if the player is looking for more than the Leafs can give him.
Toronto could get burned if it moves on from Liljegren too soon, though, so a short- or mid-term contract could work here. If the Leafs can sign him to a contract in the $3-4 million range, it buys them time to assess his progress without overcommitting or having to deal with another negotiation next summer. And if Liljegren doesn’t prove to be a fit, Toronto should be able to move him because right-handed defensemen tend to be in demand.
Thomas Harley, Dallas Stars
Previous contract: Three years x $863,333 AAV
The Stars may have come up short in Round 3, but there were a number of positive takeaways from this season — mostly regarding their up-and-coming talent. Harley is part of that. The 22-year-old proved his value when Miro Heiskanen was sidelined with injury. After the team’s No. 1 returned, Harley formed a dynamic top pair with him.
If management has enough trust in Harley’s ascension, it could try to sneak a long-term contract in now before his value rises any higher. The problem is Dallas has to work on a tight budget, especially if it wants to try to extend Chris Tanev. The Stars have $65 million tied up in nine forwards and three defensemen right now, leaving little room for anything significant for Harley. So a two-year deal, which Evolving Hockey projects to carry a sub-$4 million cap hit, could be a fit.
Goaltenders
Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins
Previous contract: one year x $3.475 million
Breaking up the Bruins’ elite goalie tandem may be necessary this summer to help balance costs and address other areas of need. Management should feel pretty confident in its new No. 1 after this past year, though.
Swayman impressed with 23 goals saved above expected in 44 regular-season games while sharing the net with Linus Ullmark, but his playoff performance showed he can be The Guy in Boston. He saved 11.6 goals above expected in 12 games and gave his team a chance to win with quality starts in 10 outings.
Evolving Hockey projects a four-year contract as the most likely outcome, with a $6.2 million cap hit. Goalie contracts can be tougher to gauge because fewer comparables are available, but this is pretty in line with other goaltenders who have transitioned from sharing the net to becoming a true No. 1.
— Data via CapFriendly, Evolving Hockey and Dom Luszczyszyn
(Top photo of Lucas Raymond celebrating a goal: Chris O’Meara / Associated Press)
