Texas looks like a national title contender. What challenges await on path to Playoff?


There was a time in Texas football’s not-too-distant past that the Longhorns would melt in the type of situation they thrived in Saturday: a big road game against a ranked opponent, before a capacity crowd full of fans throwing the horns down.

The setting turned out to be barely a factor, because of Texas’ dominance in its 31-12 drubbing of reigning national champion Michigan. That’s how much things have changed on the Forty Acres. Taking on a top-10 team and more than 100,000 screaming supporters barely fazes these Longhorns. They showed it last year at Alabama and again Saturday at the Big House.

“We weren’t really trying to come to prove anything,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters after the win. “We just wanted to play our brand, our style of football.”

The No. 2 Longhorns did, and for the first time since Mack Brown, Vince Young and Colt McCoy were on campus, that brand of football looks national championship-caliber.

That’s the level of potential for this 2024 season. Save any caveats about rebuilding Michigan and all the Wolverines lost. Sure, the roster and staff sporting the maize and blue doesn’t much resemble the 2023 squad that went 15-0. But most teams in the country, through two weeks, have already revealed some flaws, with Texas, Georgia and Ohio State seemingly head and shoulders above the rest.

Michigan’s weakened status is less consequential when considering how the Longhorns look, independent of the opponent. Texas is big, fast and physical and is loaded up and down the roster. Through two weeks, that’s how the Horns have played. They look built for a run deep into January.

And in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, Texas has more margin for error than it would have in the four-team era. Let’s look at the Longhorns’ potential path to the Playoff and the biggest remaining tests.

Sept. 28 — SEC play begins

The Longhorns are more talented than every team they face the rest of the month, starting with UTSA and Louisiana-Monroe. SEC play begins when Mississippi State visits at the end of the month. Its first-year head coach, Jeff Lebby, coached against the Horns while at Baylor and, most recently, at Oklahoma, where he called the offense that upset Texas last year in the Cotton Bowl. But Lebby’s Bulldogs just dropped a game Saturday at Arizona State after trailing 30-3 at one point and yielding 262 rushing yards to Cam Skattebo.

Oct. 12 — The Red River rivalry

The Sooners were the only team to beat Texas in the regular season last year. And the intense nature of this rivalry makes it truly unpredictable. The Sooners were underwhelming on Saturday, seemingly doing all they could to give a game away to 29.5-point underdog Houston. But past performances don’t often matter when these two meet at the State Fair of Texas.

Oct. 19 — No. 1 comes to town

A week after a huge rivalry game, the Longhorns host Georgia in what could be this season’s most highly anticipated regular-season affair and an SEC Championship Game preview. The game includes two Nick Saban proteges (Sarkisian and Kirby Smart), two Heisman Trophy contenders (quarterbacks Quinn Ewers and Carson Beck) and two talented defenses. There are NFL Draft prospects galore. If each team makes it to Oct. 19 unbeaten, the winner enters the second half of the season as the national title favorite.

Nov. 16 — A trip to Fayetteville

After Arkansas stumbled time and again while squandering a two-touchdown lead and falling 39-31 in double-overtime on Saturday to Oklahoma State, it’s easy to dismiss the Razorbacks. But Texas fans remember the Longhorns’ last trip to Fayetteville in 2021: More than 70,000 rabid Arkansas fans calling the Hogs and rushing the field after the Razorbacks shellacked Texas 40-21. The two teams are much different now — Arkansas isn’t as good, and the Longhorns are built for the physicality of the SEC. But the atmosphere is likely to be similar.

At SEC media days, Sarkisian joked “When you go to Arkansas … at times I feel like they hate Texas more than they like themselves.” Said Arkansas coach Sam Pittman, when asked about it: “You would have to ask the old hats of Arkansas, but he’s probably right.”

Nov. 30 — A rivalry renewed

As big as the Georgia game will be, and as intense as the Red River rivalry is, there may be nothing this season that matches the intensity and emotion of the Longhorns’ trip to Texas A&M. Sure, none of the current players have been a part of the in-state rivarly because the programs haven’t played since 2011. But the buildup should be unprecedented, given the 13-year break. The fact that it’s at Kyle Field — where Texas won the last one, 27-25, on a field goal by Justin Tucker as time expired — will make it all the more hostile for the Longhorns. And if Playoff positioning or an SEC title game berth is on the line for Texas, the stakes will make it even more tense.

A possible conference championship game berth could be next for the Horns. There are other SEC games to consider, with a trip to Vanderbilt and home games against Florida and Kentucky. The Longhorns are likely to be favored in every game they have left except Georgia. According to Austin Mock’s projections, Texas has an 87 percent chance of making the Playoff field (behind only Georgia’s 88 percent).

“This one game isn’t going to define our season,” Sarkisian said Saturday of the win over Michigan. “But I think it would serve as a pretty good barometer of the type of team that we could be.”

(Photo of Texas coach Steve Sarkisian: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)



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