Scottie Barnes was so impactful so quickly in the NBA that he had to endure the public dissecting his mannerisms and facial expressions in his early 20s. Such is life for a player with such prodigious talent.
His megawatt smile defined the Toronto Raptors’ surprising 2021-22 season, which ended with a playoff berth and Barnes winning a close race with Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley for Rookie of the Year. His fading to the background in many games and halftime mini-scuffle with veteran teammate Thaddeus Young was representative of the Raptors’ frustration in failing to back up that season with a step forward, or even sideways, with the Raptors crashing out in the Play-In Tournament in April 2023.
Finally, Barnes’ visible sadness when OG Anunoby was traded, leaving the bench a few seconds early at the end of an embarrassing home loss against the San Antonio Spurs, and confusion when he was questioned about that marked an awkward transition year for the Raptors in 2023-24. The Raptors went from a team trying to contend to one that accepted its financial realities and time constraints and took a purposeful step back, and as likely as that seemed to most of the basketball world, Barnes was not ready for it. Even as Barnes’ play improved, figuring out how to be the face of a franchise at its nadir for the last decade was a process. Before he could show he was making progress there, he broke his hand on March 1, ending his season.
Still, there was no doubt they were heading for a long-term pact. On Monday, Barnes and the Raptors agreed to a five-year contract that can be finalized July 6. The deal, first reported by ESPN and confirmed by The Athletic, will begin next year and could start at 30 percent of the salary cap, should Barnes make an All-NBA team in 2024-25. If not, it will start at 25 percent of the cap. The total value of the deal will likely be worth between $225 million and $270 million, thanks to new television deals that will send the league’s revenues deeper into the stratosphere.
The sticker shock should get old soon — Mobley and Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham will probably sign the same deals this offseason. If you are in your early 20s and one of the 40 or 50 best players in basketball, this is the deal you get, if you want it.
“Want it” is the key phrase. As much as the Raptors owe it to Barnes to put a competitive team around him sooner rather than later, Barnes is still the most important part of bringing about that competitiveness. In his third season, Barnes posted career highs in true shooting percentage, rebounding percentage and assist percentage. Some of that was about opportunity, but most of it was about skill development.
He has to continue to push himself to grow. That jump made him an All-Star replacement in the weaker Eastern Conference and got him to Tier 4A in Seth Partnow’s player tiers project — ranking him between the 43rd- and 55th-most impactful players in the league. That won’t be enough to lift the Raptors, who don’t have a lottery pick this year, much higher than last year.
If you throw out the Raptors’ 8-8 start, a period when they still had Pascal Siakam and Anunoby, and also scrap the entire month of March, when the team often played without much of its starting lineup and went 1-14, the Raptors were the equivalent of a 26-win team last year. In reality, they won 25. Internal development across the board will be necessary to improve on that.
Nobody’s will be more important than Barnes’. He must improve his finishing at the rim, where he too often goes into help with his right hand instead of switching to his left. He is best as a chaotic back-line defender, but the Raptors need him to be better at defending on the ball, even if that isn’t his best long-term role. His shooting has to continue to get better too. After a hot start last year, he shot just 26.3 percent from 3 in his last two months of the season.
Things might be tricker away from the court. The Raptors previously had players such as Young to lean on, a star with a similar skill set in Siakam to watch and full franchise support for Barnes behind the scenes. In moving from Nick Nurse to Darko Rajaković, the Raptors are making an offensive shift that should benefit Barnes’ greatest offensive skill, his playmaking. Even with so many veterans gone, the Raptors still have two Canadian mainstays, Olynyk and RJ Barrett, who will soak up more attention in their roles than they would in other cities.
He has all the off-court support he could want, but Barnes still must learn how to absorb the attention that comes with his position. He is the most important person in this franchise. Forget about parsing what he says or doesn’t say to the media; Barnes has to become the example of what it means to be a Raptor, as Siakam did through sheer volume of work. Barnes is not Siakam, but with the roster and style of play now being molded around Barnes, he has to embrace his part in this operation. This operation might struggle for another year or two. It won’t always be easy for Barnes.
It will be on the front office to get creative in improving the talent around Barnes. Whatever happens this offseason, the Raptors will still need to add more shooting and much more on-ball defensive talent to leap back toward the Play-In portion of the standings. Even if Barnes reaches his 90th-percentile outcome, he will need more help to get the Raptors to a prestigious spot.
If this is going to work, it needs to be a partnership. With Siakam and Anunoby gone, this is the only bet the Raptors can make. This is Barnes’ team. He must own it.
(Photo of Scottie Barnes: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
