It’s hard to believe that the playoffs are about a month away and the Houston Rockets aren’t concerned with draft position or scouting the next great talent. This team is on course for meaningful basketball soon and as such, you, our awesome subscribers, have several questions. Let’s dig in.
(Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and grammar.)
With the new cap rules, it seems there are roster construction bottlenecks at certain points. For example, even if the Rockets wanted to keep everyone without adding to the roster, they would eventually run into prohibitive cap rules, making that impossible. What are the key bottlenecks GM Rafael Stone is facing over the next year or two? — Donald C.
Great question. Houston is in a favorable financial position over the next few years.
From a macro standpoint, the incoming $76 billion TV deal and the subsequent leaguewide salary cap rising by about 10 percent every year gives the Rockets some insurance against a financial crunch — in addition to the new extensions for Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün, which aren’t devouring Houston’s cap sheet. (The Boston Celtics, for example, will have Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum commanding 70 percent of next year’s salary cap, compared to Şengün/Green, which accounts for about 43 percent. That flexibility alone gives them some breathing room.)
What the Rockets have — which is somewhat different from a “bottleneck” situation as Donald asked — is the potential for a trickle-down effect centered around veteran guard Fred VanVleet. The 30-year-old, who is currently making $42.8 million this season, has a $44.9 million option on the table for the 2025-26 season. Let’s say Houston declines that option and heads back to the negotiating table, similar to what Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves did last October. (Gobert declined his $46.6 million option and signed a new three-year deal worth up to $110 million, giving Minnesota much-needed flexibility.) Doing so would allow the Rockets to continue to keep themselves above ground financially and move on to other pressing needs.
So why is this important? Let’s fast forward the clock to the 2026-27 season when a bottleneck could arise. The salary cap should be around $170 million, the luxury tax at $206 million and the first apron at $216 million. Looking at Houston’s roster — without adding anyone as Donald suggested — the combination of Green, Şengün, Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard totals $120.5 million in salary. (We’re not adding in non-guaranteed money for Nate Williams or Jock Landale here.) The Rockets would have $85 million to spread between VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason — not to mention any future lottery pick and back-end talent.
Also, Houston would likely need to settle on rookie extensions for Thompson and Whitmore (which would officially kick in the next season). Green could also opt out of his deal that summer and become an unrestricted free agent. There isn’t a lot of money available around the league this offseason, which indirectly helps the Rockets in looming deals for Eason and Smith.
So 2027 is the year to watch for the Rockets and any bottleneck situation.
Amen Thompson cannot be removed from the starting lineup. Jabari (Smith’s) size and versatility probably belong in the starting lineup (like you said we don’t have anybody who can replicate his physical size and spacing ability). Do you think Jabari could re-enter the starting lineup by the end of the year? Or next (assuming the same roster)? And if so, what do you think that would look like? — Camden T.
I completely understand why coach Ime Udoka wants to keep Thompson in the starting lineup for the time being. Even as a second-year wing, he’s probably their most versatile defender, their most explosive rebounder and pound-for-pound their most imposing physical player. Given how heavily Udoka leans on defensive efficiency, his reliance on Thompson makes sense.
I’m just not sure if it’s the best plan moving forward.
I’ve gone back and forth on this subject for a few weeks. In theory, bringing Smith off the bench should solve the issue of his lack of offensive involvement with the starters, give him more confidence and rhythm and present Udoka with a different in-game look — which should come in handy during the postseason.
But even going back to the beginning of the season, part of the reason why the Rockets were such a dangerous unit was that they had both Thompson and Eason destroying opposing second units.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Rockets are slightly worse defensively with Thompson on the floor (although they’re still a top-five unit in his minutes) compared to Smith, whose on/off impact lies in the 88th percentile. Smith lacks the force of Thompson on the glass but in terms of savvy, timing and reaction, he’s more impactful. Houston lives and dies by their offensive rebounding prowess, and Smith’s presence (95th percentile in preventing opponents) compared to Thompson (42nd) gives him an edge in that department.
• VanVleet/Green/Brooks/Smith/Şengün — 416 minutes plus-6.6 net rating (entering Saturday’s game)
• VanVleet/Green/Brooks/Thompson/Şengün — 236 minutes, minus-8.4 net rating
Houston’s bigger issue is VanVleet’s continued absence as he recovers from a right ankle injury. Smith benefits from VanVleet’s presence (51.8 effective field goal percentage, 55.9 true shooting percentage with VanVleet on the floor, 47.5, 51.0 with him off).
I think Smith will reclaim his starting spot before the season ends.
Cam Whitmore has seemingly fallen out of favor with coach Ime Udoka. (Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Why isn’t Cam Whitmore playing? If he’s not a good fit for Udoka’s approach, what does his trade value look like in the offseason? — Jsh
While Udoka has spoken about the second-year forward’s approach to the game as a reason, I think Whitmore’s minutes are tied to the availability of everyone else on the roster.
Whitmore had an impressive display in 40 minutes against the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder earlier this week, scoring 27 points on efficient shooting, to go along with 11 rebounds, three assists, three blocks and two steals. He was rewarded with seven minutes the following night, once Houston’s starters returned to action.
Udoka’s preference for multi-faceted defenders over offensive gems should be clear by now in his second year at the helm. There’s hardly ever going to be an in-game situation, especially with the playoffs coming up, where Udoka will choose Whitmore over Eason or Smith.
Do I agree with it? No. Houston’s offensive struggles are such that they shouldn’t be so keen to discard talented players like Whitmore. I’m not sure if he’ll ever get the opportunity, barring injuries. But if the Rockets were to go star hunting in the offseason, I could easily see an opposing front office eager for his trajectory, age, size and skill set.
Is there any concern by the coaches and front office with Şengün’s regression on offense this season? I know he made the All-Star team due to our team record, but his percentages (FG, 2-point, 3-point, FT) across the board seem to have tumbled and it doesn’t seem like the trend is changing from his recent play. — Jordan E.
Not really.
Because of how the Rockets are set up offensively, with a lack of a true No. 1 option, there’s not a ton of pressure on a singular player to be relied on nightly, even in the case of Şengün, who was recently named an All-Star.
The areas he’s made the biggest strides in — rebounding, rim protection and overall defensive IQ — outweigh his counting stats to Udoka and the coaching staff. The Rockets are six points better defensively when Şengün is on the floor, good for the 89th percentile among centers. His improvement at that end of the floor might not have been feasible a few seasons ago but it’s the underlying reason why Houston has achieved the defensive success it has.
At this point, the Rockets know what they have in their Turkish big. He’s going to command double teams, a ton of usage and will tend to make the right play for others. Şengün is probably never going to become comfortable taking or making 3s, preferring to do his dirty work from the free-throw line down — and for the Rockets, that’s OK.
Are our young guys running into a wall, stamina-wise, that’s going to carry over into the playoffs? How realistic is it to have a bunch of 23-and-unders make a deep run into playoffs? Are there any recent comps to give us hope? — Todd L.
The Rockets haven’t played a playoff game at the Toyota Center since the 2018-19 season. Houston’s young players are excited over the prospect of playing under the bright lights, especially given where this franchise was two or three seasons ago. I think their stamina will be fine, although they’ve logged a lot of minutes already this season. Houston isn’t alone in that regard.
I don’t foresee this team making a deep run this season, but it’s not because of age. Maybe you could point to last season’s Indiana Pacers as an example, with Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and Aaron Nesmith part of a young core that made an Eastern Conference finals run, or the 2021 Atlanta Hawks with Trae Young, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter and John Collins.
Assume an offseason trade for a difference maker. Who on the team is or should be untouchable as part of such a trade and why? Thanks. — Glen N.
I still don’t think there’s any such thing as an untouchable on this roster. Not yet, at least.
If Nikola Jokić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was made available in an alternate universe and either of those teams called Houston’s front office, the Rockets would work to get a deal done, no matter who was included. And after what happened with Luka Dončić, there shouldn’t be anyone regarded as “untouchable.” You can be traded at any time, no matter what you’ve given an organization or what your potential looks like.
That being said, I’m in no rush to let someone like Thompson go. The only aspect of his game that’s missing is a consistent jumper, which is familiar in NBA discourse. If that ever comes to fruition, oh my. But even Thompson can’t be regarded as untouchable, I’m just using him as an example. I’m talking to you, aggregators.
(Top photo: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
