We know the names, the selection order and what’s at stake.
The NFL Draft is finally here. Maybe there’s no suspense surrounding the first overall selection, but the Cleveland Browns, who hold the No. 2 pick, still need a quarterback, future help across both lines and upgrades at their offensive skill positions — yes, all of them.
The Browns currently own 10 picks, five in the first 104: Nos. 2, 33, 67, 94 and 104. That 33rd selection starts Day 2 of the draft but could be traded either late Thursday night or early Friday evening. That extra third-rounder could end up being moved, too, either as the Browns look for extra capital or target a specific player.
A day ahead of the madness, let’s play the percentages and make educated guesses on a potential Cleveland draft roadmap.
The plan at No. 2
51 percent: Browns take Travis Hunter at No. 2
General outside consensus has changed. My thoughts have changed. The Browns have publicly raved about Hunter with seemingly no signal that it’s a bluff. It’s been a given that Cam Ward is going No. 1 to Tennessee, and Cleveland seems poised to start its draft with a player who will help on both sides of the ball and whom the folks in charge think will eventually be an elite playmaker.
I’m curious as to how the Browns will handle Hunter’s introduction to the NFL and his early workload, but I’m mostly believing he’ll be the pick. Mostly.
40 percent: Abdul Carter at No. 2
I once thought Carter would be the pick, and I still believe he has fans inside Cleveland’s decision-making circle. The Browns have long known they’d almost certainly be landing on a difference-maker who wasn’t a quarterback at No. 2, and adding Carter to Myles Garrett would give Cleveland an immediate and long-term strength with a scary pass rush.
The team’s closing pre-draft stretch included visits with quarterbacks, Carter and Hunter, and my gut tells me there’s still some chance that the top of the board never changed.
9 percent: Something else at No. 2
I’ve also believed the Browns are privately more honest about the state of the roster than they’ve been publicly and would be open to trading down for extra picks.
I’ve started to believe that the public campaign to talk up Hunter was sort of a Hail Mary toward generating trade interest. I don’t think there’s much chance the Browns take a quarterback at No. 2, and any trade would be an upset, but we’ll leave the door cracked with the franchise at such an awkward crossroads.
What about at quarterback?
65 percent: Browns go Hunter or Carter, then a QB
Failing at the game’s most important position got the Browns here, and finding the right answer at that spot is the best way out. But I don’t think it’s a certainty that they either use No. 33 on a quarterback or move up a few spots late Thursday night to keep the New York Giants or New Orleans Saints from beating them to one.
It’s the most likely scenario, yes. But in a quarterback class that’s universally regarded as shaky, the draft board figures to speak for itself. If Ward goes No. 1, the Browns and Giants pass shortly after and no other quarterbacks go in the top 20, couldn’t the waiting game continue? If the Browns don’t love one enough to make a strong move early in the draft, would they be fine waiting even further than No. 33?
If not quarterback, the Browns could aim for a long-term answer at left tackle or even get an uber-talented defensive lineman if they start their draft with Hunter. I think No. 33 is early for a running back, given the overall state of the roster, but I do think there are more realistic options than Cleveland just needing to lock in on one quarterback atop the second round. I think the Browns could even trade back into a pick in the late 40s or early 50s and select a quarterback.
At No. 33, it’s probably a QB, just not certainly. And it’s probably Jalen Milroe or Jaxson Dart.
70 percent: The QB pick will be Milroe or Dart
The Browns currently have Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett as their only healthy quarterbacks, and both are signed just for 2025. Neither is a realistic long-term starting option, and it would be a miracle if either could guide the Browns to real playoff contention.
I look at the reality of the situation — the makeup of the quarterback room, the failure of the Deshaun Watson experiment, the salary-cap situation — as sort of a blank slate. That’s why I believe Milroe is a bet on upside as the most likely play. He can play as a runner, be developed as a passer and at some point over the next six to 18 months, the Browns can either build an offense around him or get right back in the quarterback search business.
Dart is the youngest of the four quarterbacks expected to go by the end of the second round. He’s athletic enough to be interesting, and though he doesn’t have one standout trait, he has an extensive college resume and enough talent to eventually become a starting-quality player.
I’m not writing off any other quarterback prospect. And I’m not endorsing Milroe or Dart as the right pick. That’s just how I read the situation right now.
15 percent: Browns reunite Hunter and Shedeur Sanders
If Sanders doesn’t go No. 21 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, might the Browns or Giants try to move into the end of the first round to get him? Might he even be available atop the second round? I think it’s fair to wonder right now, but I wouldn’t call it a fall. I’d just say we’re all still guessing how teams view these passers. And if most of them are viewed as second-round talents, teams might be willing to wait.
Over the last 10 drafts, 35 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round, and only six have been selected in the second. Of those six, only Jalen Hurts has had any real success. By Thursday night, the board will tell us what the NFL thinks. And with so much uncertainty not just at quarterback but with all the teams picking from 20 to 32, it’s too early to know what Cleveland’s options will be.
Chances of a trade
95 percent: Browns GM Andrew Berry makes a move in the draft
I’m taking the easy one here, obviously, but it’s fair and potentially important to view this in multiple ways. The Browns could trade back into the first round for a quarterback, but I think there’s only a small (less than 15 percent) chance they’d give up their 2026 first-round pick to do so. If they liked a quarterback that much, they’d just take him at No. 2 — and that 2026 pick might be another early one.
Does a trade back into the middle of the second round make sense? If all the top offensive tackles are gone and the best running backs start to go, too, it might. If Milroe or Tyler Shough make it out of the top 40 picks, they could still be available in the early 50s range.
Berry could also look at the Browns picking early in the fourth round, but not again until the sixth, and decide to try to add a selection around 150. Some other team might want pick No. 67. The first pick of the second round has been traded in three straight drafts, twice to get back into the first round and once for a team to come up and get a quarterback. I know it’s GM-speak, but Berry has insisted he won’t force things and take a quarterback just because it’s atop all of our external need lists.
Will he live up to that Friday? Could the Browns still be interested in a Will Howard or Kyle McCord because of how the draft falls, or because the team actually has trust in Pickett or Flacco?
The draft always brings mystery. This one inevitably brings a level of desperation for Berry and the Browns, but that doesn’t have to mean it ends up going according to consensus. Maybe these percentages are right on, but maybe a big surprise is coming.
(Photo of Travis Hunter: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)