LOS ANGELES — It is time, once more, for my war on round numbers.
Technically, the Raptors played their 11th game on Sunday night when they lost 123-103 to the Los Angeles Lakers, their fourth defeat in a row. That is one game past the traditional point to first take stock of a team. They have played 7.45 percent of their schedule, which is not a thing. It’s not even as if they have finished a road trip: They have to deplane on Monday for a game against the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday to finish a five-game trip that otherwise took place in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.
Here is what we are establishing, then: the Pre-Emirates Cup (neé In-Season Tournament) assessment window. We’re willing it into existence. The Raptors start the second-ever tournament in Milwaukee, so we must know, right this second, how they are performing.
Watch: At this time next year, everyone will be breaking down their teams at this time of year. We don’t follow trends; we start ‘em.
Here are the seven things I think I know about the Raptors thus far.
The Raptors are trying to be a Nick Nurse-era team — with an exception
The Raptors are a below-average shooting team. That was obvious before the season, and has been confirmed early. As a result, coach Darko Rajaković has leaned on trying to win the possession battle, as Nurse did in his final years in Toronto. The Raptors have the best offensive-rebounding percentage in the league. They are also playing a high-pressure defence, although it has yet to yield high-turnover nights from opponents. That is a goal, though.
To really take advantage, the Raptors will have to limit their turnovers and take care of their own glass better than they have so far.
However, the Raptors are running, running and running some more. They never did much of that under Nurse. They rank 10th in pace, and that is down from the first few games.
“Transition. And more transition and pace,” Rajaković said of what the Raptors need to work on. “We’re a very young team. We’re at our best when we play in the open court.”
The defence is a (somewhat purposeful) mess
Rookies are usually very bad at defence. The Raptors have played four of them together at times. The Raptors rank last in defence. Young players tend to foul a lot. The Raptors’ opponents have the highest free-throw attempted rate.
It’s not just the youth. It’s the lack of rim protection behind Jakob Poeltl, especially without the injured Scottie Barnes to make plays on the weak side. It is a team prioritizing offensive rebounding but not nailing down the rules of when to crash the glass, thus allowing transition opportunities. It’s a small team bad at defensive rebounding (22nd).
Another thing: It’s a team not worried about getting perfect matchups. Rajaković said he doesn’t want to hide weaker or smaller individual defenders — Gradey Dick, for example — as he prizes long-term experience over short-term advantages.
“We don’t want to adjust any coverages to hide them because once you come to the playoffs, which we want to become a playoff (team) and be a contender one day, those guys have got to be ready,” Rajaković said. “And you don’t want to come to a situation that somebody is picking on your guys in the playoffs and they cannot be on the floor.”
“Our mindset is in the right place. … The groundwork is there,” Poeltl added after the Lakers game. It was one of the first signs of frustrations at the result this year. “We’re just not good at it yet.”
Yep.
This team could feature the start of a future Bench Mob
No need to belabour this, as it has been easy to focus on role players succeeding this year. It is fun to watch Jonathan Mogbo’s interior passing, Jamal Shead’s defence on the ball and Jamison Battle’s shot-hunting. Nobody can promise this group will produce multiple All-Stars and starting-quality players like the 2017-18 group did. There could be a few long-term contributors here, though.
Speaking of which …
Agbaji’s shooting from 2- and 3-point range in his first 27 games with the Raptors last year: 49.6 and 21.7 percent. In four games at summer league: 42.9 and 14.3 percent. Not great.
Now, the same stats through 11 games this year: 67.2 and 47.7 percent. Agbaji doesn’t have to keep those numbers up to be an effective rotation player. However, if he is even slightly closer to this version than the one from last year and the summer, his defence and skill in transition will make him a surefire rotation player on a good team.
“Summer league wasn’t the way I wanted it to go. I would say I was a little discouraged after that, but that was kind of just motivation even more for me going back into (team) mini-camps that we had just to kind of go and prove myself again and kind of re-establish that confidence,” Agbaji said in a one-on-one conversation on Saturday. “Summer league and last year, I’ll always tell people now, those were kind of just the building blocks of me. Obviously you have to have those down days to have up days.”
When the Raptors guaranteed his fourth-year option, some observers might have been confused. A few weeks into the season, it retroactively looks like an obvious decision.
Darko Rajaković wants the Raptors to play fast and share the ball. (Jonathan Hui / Imagn Images)
Rajaković’s offensive system is catching on
The Athletic’s Law Murray asked the Raptors coach about how the perceived homogeneity of offensive styles — lots of driving and kicking, lots of 3s — was being criticized by some fans of the game before the Raptors lost to the Clippers. Unsurprisingly, Rajaković mounted a verbal defence.
“If you watch the best player in the world in Nikola Jokić, that’s how he plays. That’s how he’s making decisions. And two years ago they won the championship,” Rajaković said. “You had the opportunity to watch Golden State for many years competing for championships, and they always move the ball and play together and play unselfish. So there are so many examples of great teams that play that way. … When San Antonio was at a peak, winning five championships was that style of basketball.”
While noting that there are many different ways to move the ball and get up lots of 3s, as well as the fact that the Spurs evolved during their decade and a half of brilliance, Rajaković believes an offence reliant on ball movement is the ideal way to play. Coming into the Lakers game, the Raptors ranked third in passes per game and first in potential assists. They rank fourth in assists per game and third in percentage of baskets that are assisted.The rookies seem as comfortable with the style as players who were in Toronto last year. It is progress.
The Raptors should sign Kyra Sedgwick, because they need a closer
The Raptors have been competitive in every game except for opening night. However, they haven’t really been in all of those games. Fans will remember some fake comebacks, opponents playing with their food and other recognizable scenarios in which good teams beat less good teams. The Raptors have played huge portions of good games, but they have been outclassed when it has mattered generally.
Immanuel Quickley might be the Raptors’ best hope at puncturing some of the league’s best half-court defences, but even he is not a surefire answer, as he is more crafty than fast. (He was good in that regard against the Clippers on Saturday.) Barnes is big, but he will have to show his handling is good enough to survive locked-in defences. Defensively, they are tough but undersized, so can be picked on.
And that’s how you wind up with a net rating of minus 29.1 points per 100 possessions in their first 24 “clutch” minutes of the year, as defined by NBA.com. The offence (20th) has been better than the defence (25th) in those situations. The raw numbers will improve, but it’s hard to see the rankings changing that much.
This might be the happiest 25ish-win team ever
The Raptors raved about how much their summertime camps in Las Vegas, Spain and Miami united them. That is usually the type of comment that stands up right until the first five-game losing streak. With bad results comes bickering, and with bickering comes fracture.
Two things will help the Raptors avoid that fate. First, there is excellent role definition on this team, with rookies understanding their possible trajectories and veterans knowing why they are Raptors. Secondly, with all of the injuries, a bunch of young players have received a chance to play already. If the Raptors were healthier, that would not have been the case. Even if some of them have to go to the G League, they will have prescriptive work to do based on NBA performance.
Plus, they seem to genuinely like each other.
“Nobody’s complaining,” Chris Boucher said. “Everybody’s trying to get better and work.”
“I really think the closeness and the chemistry that we have as a team really allows us to (stay) together and … keep fighting for each other, too,” Agbaji added. “I think that’s that’s really what it is — and not really ever letting down or giving up on each other.”
In that sense, two very different types of two-win teams will play one another on Tuesday.
(Top photo of Ochai Agbaji dribbling past Nicolas Batum: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
