Mitch Marner has the hockey world in his magical hockey hands.
In sifting through the fallout of a ground-shaking NHL trade deadline, and with apologies to the big-swinging Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche, there may have been no bigger winner from these past few days than the Toronto Maple Leafs winger.
Consider: Mikko Rantanen removed himself from the league’s upcoming free-agent equation by securing a $96 million, eight-year extension in a trade-and-sign with the Dallas Stars on Friday, leaving top billing on July 1 to Marner alone.
That is no small thing with the perfect storm of free-agency conditions brewing for elite-level NHL talent. Not only is the league on the precipice of its first meaningful salary cap jump in years, from $88 million to $95.5 million next season and on to $113.5 million by 2027-28, but the shifting competitive windows of its franchises has left well-heeled organizations like the Chicago Blackhawks and Montreal Canadiens, among many others, absolutely thirsting to find another game-breaker.
Or what about the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers, two premier tax-haven teams that always go big-game hunting? Or maybe the Avalanche look to fill the hole left behind by Rantanen?
We can even throw the deep-pocketed Toronto Maple Leafs into that mix since they have made clear they would like Marner to remain on their roster beyond the June 30 expiry of his contract while having no idea where the next few months will take them.
All eyes are on pending UFA Mitch Marner. (James Guillory / Imagn Images)
You see, the other thing Marner accomplished during this deadline period was sticking to his conviction. The 27-year-old has maintained a desire to push off decisions about his future until after this season, and now he officially won’t have to entertain what happens next before the final Leafs game is played this spring.
Toronto expressed interest in getting down to business on a contract extension in recent months, but the Marner camp was unwilling to engage during the season, according to league sources.
The Leafs wanted to sign a player who already sits fifth in franchise history in scoring for what remains of his prime and beyond. Marner wasn’t ready to make that commitment before Friday’s trade deadline passed — not with a world of opportunity potentially ready to unfold before him this summer.
That explains, in part, why the Leafs entertained trade discussions with the Carolina Hurricanes centered around Rantanen before he was dealt to Dallas. The big Finn could obviously have helped Toronto chase a Stanley Cup in the immediate term, but he also represented an insurance policy in the event Marner chose to walk out the door and the Leafs pivoted to signing him instead.
The Leafs-Hurricanes talks began with Carolina wondering if a Marner-for-Rantanen deal might be a possibility, according to league sources. But that was a non-starter with Marner holding a no-movement clause in his contract and wielding full control over his situation. The Leafs approached Marner before the deadline and told him that their first choice was for him to sign an extension in Toronto but that a trade to Carolina was possible if he didn’t want to do that. Marner said he wanted to remain with the Leafs.
Subsequent discussions between the teams went on to include the possibility of Toronto sending Matthew Knies and significant other future assets — the Hurricanes wound up getting two first-round picks, two third-round picks and 22-year-old center Logan Stankoven from the Stars in exchange for Rantanen — but the Leafs didn’t feel like they could make that kind of package work.
In that scenario, they risked subtracting two-thirds of their current top line in Knies and a departing Marner this summer, while facing the likelihood they would have to pay Rantanen as much as $14 million on a long-term extension because they wouldn’t be able to offer him the same kind of tax benefits he’ll get in Texas.
That raises another important point when looking at what potentially lies ahead for Marner: While on the surface there may be a temptation to conclude that Rantanen’s $12 million average annual value hurts his negotiating power while trying to reset the bar for elite wingers (they have similar career rates of production during the regular season, and Rantanen has vastly outpaced Marner during the playoffs), that ignores how unique the circumstances would be if Marner actually hit the open market this summer.
If it happens, all bets are off.
There’s a prevailing industry belief that teams were preparing to offer Rantanen a free-agent deal that would match the $14 million AAV on Leon Draisaitl’s new contract in Edmonton this summer, and it’s only logical to conclude that something similar could be out there for Marner in a rising-cap environment.
Remember that he is currently in the midst of a career-best season and buoyed by taking a star turn while playing for a victorious Team Canada at the recent 4 Nations Face-Off. Marner’s 77 points entering play Saturday had him on pace to eclipse the 100-point mark for the first time. Plus he’s a unicorn among big-time NHL point producers because of his elite defensive play and status as a top penalty killer.
Mitch Marner celebrates Canada’s win in the 4 Nations Face-Off. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Historically, players of his ilk seldom hit free agency while still in their primes.
The most recent examples are the late Johnny Gaudreau in 2022, Artemi Panarin in 2019 and John Tavares in 2018, and that trio didn’t find anywhere near the same kind of market conditions that prevail today.
There was an alternate scenario that could have played out this summer where two marquee free agents hit the NHL’s open market at the same time. Marner and Rantanen have followed similar professional paths after being taken fourth and 10th in the 2015 draft by Toronto and Colorado, respectively. They both became stars and endured protracted negotiations on their second NHL contracts, missing time during training camp in September 2019 before eventually signing six-year extensions.
A key difference in those contracts was Marner securing a full no-movement clause when eligible in Years 5 and 6, while Rantanen accepted a nine-team no-trade list.
That put them in vastly different positions in their platform season, with Rantanen getting blindsided by a Jan. 24 trade to Carolina when the Avalanche didn’t like the direction contract talks were going. That was followed by an awkward six-week period where he was a reluctant member of the Hurricanes before Rantanen signed his life-changing third NHL deal in Dallas.
Marner, meanwhile, could sleep easy all year long while knowing that he didn’t have to negotiate at all.
He merely had to let his play do the talking.
It should be noted that there very well may still be a world where the hometown boy chooses to keep plying his trade in Toronto beyond this season. Lines of communication remain open, and Marner has spoken often about how lucky he feels to represent the city and club that shape so many of the warmest memories from his youth.
But what the events of recent weeks have underlined more than anything is that if the Leafs want to keep Marner for the next phase of his career, they’re going to have to bid against other viable options to do it.
(Photo: Luther Schlaifer / Imagn Images)
