Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Receiver Targets
I’m afraid the Jaxon Smith-Njigba outburst will be short-lived after the bye in Week 10 given the expected return of DK Metcalf. But he was No. 2 in Week 9.
Darnell Mooney at No. 3 is just more evidence that he’s a league winner.
Travis Kelce and Cade Otton played in the Tight End Bowl and finished fourth and fifth overall. Otton was more efficient. As expected, he’s the beneficiary of the decimated Tampa Bay receiving corps.
Evan Engram at No. 9 while Brian Thomas Jr. doesn’t even chart is why the Jaguars are terrible and why Trevor Lawrence, who has the dump off as a primary read, is such a massive disappointment. The Jaguars do not deserve Thomas.
The Jets are doing things right. The only charting receivers are Davante Adams (No. 6) and Garrett Wilson (No. 11). It’s just glorious. And it’s also a boon to Aaron Rodgers, who now looks like a Top 10 fantasy QB and is still widely available.
Courtland Sutton was in the Top 20 again. He’s a Top 20 WR rest-of-season, or close enough. His Fantasy Pros consensus ROS rank is WR42. Trade for him at this price, please.
Bijan Robinson was the No. 1 RB in target share. Unfortunately, there is no sneaky zeroRB waiver-wire add this week based on this metric.
Tank Dell gets an upgrade in the Top 20 even if Nico Collins returns this week. The passing tree is going to be a lot more narrow regardless. I hate Dell’s pint-sized prototype, but I wish I had some shares right now.
Washington’s Noah Brown is definitely worth rostering now, especially after they did nothing at the WR position at the deadline. He’s only 2% rostered on Yahoo. Market share is important here because his No. 20 finish in Week 9 means a lot more than six targets, which can escape our attention.
I like Xavier Legette after the trades in Carolina and the fact that Bryce Young didn’t look like a complete bust last week. The same goes for Ja’Tavion Sanders at tight end, where his 19.2% rate was near the 20% we like. He’s far more athletic than the average tight end, too. So it’s reasonable to think his production will exceed his target share.
I feel similar about Theo Johnson, 32nd overall (sixth among TEs) and just behind Brock Bowers.
I fear I was wrong about Jameis Winston being a good fit with David Njoku. The market share has not been there. I would’ve expected him to be in the Top 30 consistently. He was 61st in Week 9.
Running Back Touches
Chase Brown was No. 3, not surprising with Zack Moss (neck) banged up and now expected to be out for the year. Enter Khalil Herbert, who has extremely good advanced metrics for his career. It seems like the Bengals don’t think that Brown can be “The Man” in terms of market share. I would add Herbert.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. further cemented himself as the RB1 for the Giants, and you can snicker at that, but us zeroRB types can care less about the real-life team.
Rico Dowdle was 25th and gets laughed at still by the experts. I heard on the radio a couple of supposed sharps saying they prefer Jaylen Warren over Dowdle. What? Dowdle is about to get a Trey Lance bump too, with his running threat really boosting the entire running game operation (about 0.5 yards per carry on average for the RB).
Raheem Mostert and Bucky Irving, both around RB30, are reasonable starters. Irving outpaced Rachaad White. I guess you can bet on Jaleel McLaughlin, though Sean Payton again said he wants more Audric Estime, who we’ve overestimated for the same reason before.
Those Kimani Vidal shares are worthless. He does nothing and J.K. Dobbins was again in the Top 20, and also efficient again.
Tank Bigsby having no role in the passing game is very harmful to his PPR value, especially if you think the Jaguars are going to be trailing for most of their remaining games.
Again, no real waiver-wire value at RB but a lot of zeroRB guys are thriving: Brown, Tony Pollard, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Kareem Hunt, D’Andre Swift, Dobbins, Tracy — all are in the Top 20 and at least RB2s the rest of the season, barring injury. What’s unusual is that just two of these guys were waiver adds (Tracy, Hunt).
(Top photo of Rico Dowdle: Brett Davis-Imagn Images)
