Does the Vanderbilt-Bama upset even matter? Plus, Week 5 NFL watch guide

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Good morning! Please let Rece Davis rest today. 

Three Questions: College football’s new reality

There was a time when you couldn’t suffer an embarrassing regular-season upset and still be a title contender in college football. Sometimes, you couldn’t lose at all. Ask Georgia. Last year, the Dawgs lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, finished 13-1, and didn’t even crack the four-team playoff. A two-time defending national champion lost once, against a good team, and was out. Those were the rules.

Last night, Alabama endured one of the more stunning upsets in modern college football history — a legit No. 1 going down to Vanderbilt. VANDERBILT (🤯). But this is the first year of the 12-team playoff field. So, we must ask: Is this a first-of-its-kind humiliation, a giant upset that maybe doesn’t matter much?

We grabbed the author of our College Football Playoff projection model, Austin Mock. Open the link. That’s the playoff field. But we have questions…

Seems wild, but Bama is still a playoff team, right?

Austin: They are. My model has them at 80 percent and the sixth most likely team to make the playoff. Did they give themselves a smaller margin of error? Certainly. But they’re still one of the best teams in the country and a win over Georgia will go a long way.

How many teams feel like locks? Call it 80 percent or higher.

I currently have six teams with at least an 80 percent chance of making the playoff. Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Penn State and Alabama. Miami (Florida), after a wild comeback last night, is above 75 percent, but the eighth team (Ole Miss) is at just 53 percent. The last few spots of the playoff are going to be chaotic over the final two months.

Who is going to make it that never makes the old playoff?

Boise State is my favorite to make the playoff from the Group of 5. They already have a loss — by three points at Oregon — but a one-loss non-Power conference team would have never had a shot in the old format.

Again, hit refresh on this playoff model every day. And read Until Saturday for everything you need to know on how the new playoff field will shift.

NFL Watch Guide: Morning football is extremely back

The European games are beginning today, which means many of us will inevitably wake up this morning and find a delightful surprise on TV as we pour a coffee. Your guide to an extremely full day:

9:30 a.m. ET
Jets vs. Vikings — This feels like a must-win for New York even though it certainly isn’t. The vibes are awful on this team, and despite a 2-2 record, the season feels on the verge of collapse — unless Davante Adams is on the way. Oh, and they have to play the most impressive team of the young NFL season. Cheerio. TV: NFL Network

1 p.m. ET 

Bills at Texans — Most will flock to Ravens-Bengals, but we touched on that one Friday while this sneaky great game just sits here. Are the Bills the team that started 3-1 or the one that crashed out in Baltimore last week? And can the Texans actually put an impressive performance together? Also, Stefon Diggs gets to see his old team. TV: CBS

4:25 p.m. ET 

Packers at Rams — Two talented teams with good head coaches who come from the same tree. Two teams that have dealt with injuries and feel like they haven’t found their final form. Jordan Love versus Matthew Stafford. Yes. TV: CBS

8:20 p.m. ET
Cowboys at Steelers — I have no idea what to make of these two. Russell Wilson? Apparently he’s coming back at some point, but Pittsburgh is firmly Justin Fields’ operation for now. Dallas? Not a shred of consistency thus far, and Brandin Cooks is out tonight. You could tell me any result and I’d believe you. I guess that makes for a good game. TV: NBC

Stream NFL games on Fubo.

(Top photo: Butch Dill / Imagn Images)