First, credit where it’s due.
Longtime college hoops reporter Seth Davis has been doing some version of this column for basically as long as I’ve been alive, and that certainly was the inspiration here. But rather than hitting on dozens of teams, I’m drilling in on a specific few.
Another change: Seth usually does this exercise around midseason. Obviously, we’re doing it with less than two weeks left in the regular season — so consider this geared toward the NCAA Tournament. A “buy” is a team that has had a recent surge to warrant postseason belief. A “sell” is a team that could crash out before the second weekend. And a “hold” is a team that has been consistent, one I’ve been riding with and am still in on.
Away we go.
BUY
Clemson
Since Feb. 1, only three high-major teams have a top-20 adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking, per Bart Torvik: Duke, Florida … and Clemson, which has won 10 of its past 11 games, including the only victory any team has over Duke since Thanksgiving. The Tigers are 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the past three weeks, ahead of teams such as Maryland and Arizona, and ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency, ahead of Auburn and Houston. That sort of company should perk your ears up.
So what makes Clemson special? A few things, but start with the Tigers’ shooting, which is as good as any other team in America. Clemson is eighth nationally in 3-point percentage, canning 38.8 percent of its 3s, and averages 1.098 points per possession on spot-up shots, per Synergy, which is the 10th-best rate in Division I. No single shooter makes a team that proficient from deep — and lo and behold, six Tigers have made at least 20 3s this season at a 36 percent clip or better. Sixth-year guard Chase Hunter, the star of last season’s Elite Eight run, is the best of the bunch, making 42.7 percent of his 3s.
But it’s the recent emergence of senior forward Viktor Lakhin that has unlocked Clemson’s best offense. Over the team’s past four games, which includes the win over Duke, Lakhin is averaging 17.3 points, six rebounds and two blocks, while making six of his 10 treys. Not only is the 6-foot-11 Russian a secondary interior presence alongside Ian Schieffelin, but also his floor-stretching ability means defenses reasonably have to cover five shooters at once. Perfect example from Saturday against SMU: Watch the tagger after Jaeden Zackery (No. 11) drew two and kicked out to a wide-open Lakhin (No. 0). Even while Lakhin loaded to shoot, the tagger couldn’t fully commit because he would’ve been leaving Hunter wide open — so Lakhin steps into his uncontested 3 and calmly knocks it down:
Between Clemson’s shooting and experience — it starts three seniors, one junior and the 23-year-old Hunter — the Tigers are clearly the second-best team in the ACC and have the looks of a second weekend team (at least) for the second straight season.
Saint Mary’s
Not only did Randy Bennett’s Gaels complete their regular-season sweep of Gonzaga on Saturday, but also they continued to validate a defense that, per Bart Torvik, ranks tops nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency since February began. Yes, really.
The two things Saint Mary’s is best at defensively, which pair well together, are 2-point defense and 3-point rate. That isn’t how many 3s opponents make against the Gaels, but how many opponents even take — which is very, very few. Only 17.7 per game, actually, the fourth fewest in Division I. That comes out to the Gaels being eighth nationally in defensive 3-point rate, per KenPom, or one of just 17 teams in D-I that doesn’t allow at least a third of its opponents’ shots to come from deep.
But the other half of that formula, Saint Mary’s 2-point defense, is what ties the Gaels’ total defensive package together. In 6-foot-10 starter Mitchell Saxen, who is top-200 nationally in block percentage, and 7-foot-1 reserve Harry Wessels, Bennett basically always has at least one elite rim protector on the floor, too. So not only does his team run opponents off the 3-point line — Saint Mary’s is particularly effective at soft hedging against ball screens — and funnel everything inside, but once it does, there’s usually a wall patrolling the paint. Good luck scoring against that combo.
Here’s what I mean by that effective soft hedge, by the way, which both disrupts the shooter’s timing and gives his initial defender time to recover:
You can debate whether the Gaels have the necessary offensive firepower to make a deep run in March — but there’s no question they’ll give any opponent they face a tough time defensively. Don’t be surprised to see Bennett’s best team make life hell for some higher seed in the second weekend.
SELL
Kansas
Kansas fell out of the AP Top 25 on Monday, and if you’re thinking, “That probably hasn’t happened in a while,” you’re right! That snapped an 80-week ranked streak for the Jayhawks. The last time Kansas wasn’t in the AP poll was February 2021 — or about a month before KU crashed out of the NCAA Tournament in epic fashion, via a 34-point loss to USC that is tied for Bill Self’s worst defeat with the program.
Why that loss feels relevant today? Because a week ago, Kansas lost to BYU by 34 points, the only other time a Self-coached Kansas team has been so thoroughly trounced.
It’s clear by now that Self simply missed in the transfer portal, most clearly with former Wisconsin wing AJ Storr, who is averaging a career-low 6.2 points and 16.5 minutes per game. Storr was a high-usage, low-efficiency athlete with the Badgers, but his poor shooting and propensity for turnovers have been a rough fit on a Kansas roster that already featured non-shooters Dajuan Harris Jr. and KJ Adams. Former Alabama guard Rylan Griffen looks like a shell of his former self, too, regressing from a double-digit scorer and Final Four starter to an inconsistent role player.
That perilous roster construction has, once again, led to a team with fatal offensive flaws. Kansas is 118th in adjusted offensive efficiency since February began, per Bart Torvik, with its ball insecurity and inability to get to the free-throw line as recurring, seemingly insurmountable issues. The Jayhawks are second-to-last in D-I in free-throw rate, per KenPom, with their 14.1 attempts per game ranking 356th. And since the start of the month, they’re 295th nationally in turnover rate, too, averaging 13.4 giveaways per game. There are other issues, but those two by themselves bode poorly for the Jayhawks sticking around long this postseason.
Purdue
Listen, even if Purdue hadn’t let Indiana come back from a 12-point halftime deficit to drop its fourth straight, the Boilermakers were slated to be a sell for the same reasons that ultimately cost them the game Sunday.
Purdue’s biggest issue, unequivocally, is its interior “defense,” or lack thereof. Per CBB Analytics, Purdue opponents score 44.6 percent of their points in the paint, which ranks 241st nationally — but over the past five games, that percentage is up to 47.8 percent, which ranks 336th nationally during that stretch. A three-possession stretch during Indiana’s comeback tells the story as clearly as anything. First, Purdue tried doubling Malik Reneau (No. 5) when he got the ball on the low post, and Reneau effortlessly found the open cutter:
The next possession, another Reneau paint touch, another Purdue double — and another feed out of it, this time to Luke Goode for a wide-open corner 3:
And lastly, Reneau got low-post positioning on Trey Kaufman-Renn and easily elevated for the unopposed dunk:
And this team was a No. 2 seed — No. 7 overall — in the selection committee’s mock bracket earlier this month.
This has been a defensive weakness for the Boilermakers all season, but now teams are hammering it, which is obviously untenable. The offense is (usually) good enough to keep Purdue competitive, but allowing opponents to shoot 56 percent from 2 is asking for an early-round upset. Plus, the typically sure-handed Braden Smith hasn’t exactly been Mr. Reliable lately; he’s had back-to-back six-turnover games, which was key to Indiana’s transition offense on Sunday, and has scored only single digits in three of Purdue’s past five games. If there’s anyone to bet on figuring this out, it’s Matt Painter, but there are only so many tweaks a coach can make this late.
HOLD
Duke
Holy beatdown, Batman. I figured Duke would beat shorthanded Illinois on Saturday at Madison Square Garden, and probably cover, but dealing the Illini their largest margin of defeat ever?
No, didn’t expect that.
So why is Duke a hold and not a buy? Because how much higher can the Blue Devils’ stock really get? This team has been a national title front-runner since it dealt Auburn its first loss in December, and with only one defeat since Thanksgiving, that’s still the case. But what the win over Illinois did tell us is that any apprehension over a lackluster ACC schedule leaving the young Blue Devils unprepared for the rigors of March was almost certainly overblown.
In fact, if anything, Duke winning so dominantly despite Cooper Flagg scoring “only” 16 points is a testament to this team’s continued growth. There’s no better example of that than five-star freshman Isaiah Evans, who scored 17 points Saturday for the second straight game; that marked the first time this season Evans has hit double figures in consecutive contests. The 6-foot-6 sharpshooter previously broke out against Auburn to the tune of six 3s and a career-high 18 points but has been in and out of Duke’s lineup because of his slight frame and suspect defense. Recently, though, Evans has made enough defensive strides to warrant regular minutes — not to mention Jon Scheyer needing another body with forward Maliq Brown injured. (Scheyer said on Thursday that Brown would be out “weeks,” but his dislocated shoulder is not considered season-ending.)
Evans needs only an inch of daylight to get it off, as he made clear on this catch-and-shoot off a flare screen:
Evans’ 3-point “gravity” is becoming more of a thing, too. Kasparas Jakucionis (No. 32 in orange) didn’t even feign a stunt on this second-half pick-and-roll because he doesn’t want to give Evans a single inch of space:
I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Evans’ offensive uptick mitigates the loss of Brown defensively — Brown is that good — but if Duke gets Brown back while maintaining Evans’ rising role? That’s as close to a “buy” as you get with one of the two teams favored to win it all.
Iowa State
The Cyclones may not be in that elite Auburn/Duke tier atop college hoops, but at full strength they’re still one of the best two-way teams in the country. They had to make do for seven games in January and February when starting wing Milan Momcilovic was out with a hand injury.
Up until Jan. 11, the last game before Momcilovic got hurt, TJ Otzelberger’s team was 14-1 (with the lone loss to Auburn at the buzzer in Maui) and one of just seven teams with a top-20 adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking.
ISU then went 3-4 without Momcilovic — easily the team’s best 3-point shooter, at 41.2 percent. Upon his return, it promptly rattled off a 4-0 stretch with an average margin of victory of 16.8 points.
Saturday’s road trip to Houston then brought about a new challenge, with leading scorers Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert out due to illness. And how did the Cyclones respond? By cutting a one-time 16-point deficit down to a single point, courtesy of a shocking 13-0 second-half sprint. Otzelberger’s team ran out of gas thereafter, but that sort of fight, on the road, shorthanded, against the about-to-be Big 12 champions? Mighty impressive if you can look past the Cyclones’ absences — which you should, since those illnesses aren’t considered long term.
Plus, Northern Iowa transfer Nate Heise stepped up. His 12 points against Houston gave him consecutive double-digit scoring efforts for the first time this season. Heise was an All-Missouri Valley honoree last season, and while he’s only a bit part for these Cyclones, his 3-point shooting and propensity for steals could prove valuable come March — especially if the Cyclones find themselves shorthanded again. It was Heise who hit the last 3 amid Iowa State’s second-half surge on Saturday:
My only question with Iowa State — not unlike with Baylor in 2021 — is if the Cyclones have enough time left before the postseason to get back on a roll.
But if so? That Baylor comparison might not be a bad one.
(Photo of Clemson’s Viktor Lakhin: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)
