ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Sean Payton wanted to test the narrative.
When the Broncos were evaluating Bo Nix during the pre-draft process, they were not oblivious that some analysts viewed the quarterback’s record completion rate at Oregon as a product of an offensive system that quickly got the ball in space to superior playmakers by way of quick, short throws.
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So the Broncos threw all the draft-eligible quarterbacks into a data set that filtered out “all the bubbles” and other throws that were at or behind the line of scrimmage.
“Everyone bangs him for the underneath throws,” Payton said during an appearance on The Athletic’s “Scoop City” podcast in August. “That’s his offense, to some degree. He can’t control that.”
The results of that statistical dive by Denver’s analytics department showed Nix was at the top of the class in terms of efficiency in third-down, red-zone and two-minute situations, among other qualifiers. He also protected the ball in the qualifying set of data as well as any quarterback in the group and had the lowest sack rate. The accompanying film for the non-bubble throw data painted an encouraging picture for Payton.
“The single most important trait besides his processing, which is always hard to really measure, is his ability to throw from a dirty pocket,” Payton said on the podcast. “There’s just a little bit of penetration, and he can take that short step and be on point.”
Two weeks into Nix’s first NFL season, the same filters have been far less flattering. Fourteen of Nix’s 77 pass attempts (third-most in the NFL) have been thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia. That 18.2 percent rate of the so-called bubble throws is actually lower than the league average (24 percent) during the early days of an NFL season that is seeing quarterbacks dink and dunk at a previously unseen rate. Nix has completed 13 of those 14 attempts, giving him a 92.9 percent completion rate that is the best in the NFL among 25 quarterbacks with at least 10 such attempts.
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It’s a different story when those throws are removed from the data set. On throws 1 yard past the line of scrimmage and beyond, Nix is completing 52.4 percent, which ranks 25th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks. His 5.4 yards per attempt ranks 28th and his passer rating of 41.8 is 31st, better than only recently benched Panthers quarterback Bryce Young. Push the filters back a bit further and the numbers become even worse. Nix has completed only 13 of 42 attempts on which his target is 5 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage. The 31 percent completion rate on those passes is the worst in the NFL. The same goes for the 10.3 passer rating.
“I don’t think it’s one thing,” offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said when asked to put his finger on Denver’s struggles in the intermediate passing game. “It’s working together with timing, protection, routes. There’s not one thing that go into it. Like most things on offense, it has to be 11 guys working together.”
The NFL is not a bombs-away league. No quarterback in the league has completed more than three passes of 25 or more air yards this season. Nix isn’t being asked and shouldn’t be asked to carry Denver’s offense by throwing deep. But he and the Broncos have been alarmingly inefficient with their mid-range jumpers.
Nix has misfired on 20 of his 28 pass attempts between 5 and 15 yards, including 0-of-8 on those between 10 and 15 yards. Eleven of those attempts in that intermediate distance have come on third down, and the Broncos have completed only two, a major part of why they have the NFL’s 29th-ranked third-down offense overall (23.3 percent). The issues have also popped up in the red zone. The Broncos have scored touchdowns on only one of their seven trips inside the 20, and Nix is only 3-of-9 on any pass beyond the line of scrimmage in that area of the field.
“In the NFL, I obviously haven’t figured out a whole lot since we haven’t scored in the red zone yet,” Nix said bluntly Wednesday. “I think, like anything else, that’s a work in progress. We have to continue to find ways to move the ball and gain just subtle yards to where we can put the ball close enough, get in some goal-line situations and put the ball in the box. Red zone is always hard, no matter what level you’re on because the field shrinks. The defense doesn’t have as much ground to cover. We just have to do a good job of being efficient in the red zone and continuing to move forward.”
There have been times when Nix has shown an ability to maneuver the pocket and make plays as he scans for intermediate targets. During the second quarter of the Week 1 game in Seattle, Nix ran up the pocket and hit Courtland Sutton on the run for 17 yards. Midway through the third quarter in Sunday’s game against the Steelers, Nix shuffled to his left in a clean pocket and uncorked a laser of a throw to Sutton on a crossing route for a 26-yard gain. Nix has generally avoided vacating the pocket too early, a sign that he trusts his protection even as he’s still learning how to effectively navigate pressure at NFL speed.
“He is comfortable in the pocket, and we’ve seen him climb the pocket countless times,” Payton said Wednesday. “I think that consistency relative to the pocket is important for any young player. Ultimately in our league, you can get outside. With mobile quarterbacks, we see it all the time. Ultimately, there are times where we have to win from the pocket. We’ve seen that from him.”
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Still, the list of missed opportunities on those throws is longer than the hits at this early stage. As the Broncos head into their Week 3 game against the Buccaneers, fixing the issues that have led to that inconsistency has been a major priority. One problem has been a lack of connection with Sutton. The rookie quarterback has targeted the veteran wide receiver a team-high 16 times, but only five of those passes have resulted in completions. All of Nix’s interceptions, excluding his Hail Mary hurl to end Sunday’s game, were passes he tried to thread into Sutton, only to have them easily picked by a defensive back lurking underneath.
Asked whether he was at times forcing the ball too much to Sutton, Nix gave a defiant, one-word answer: “No.”
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Nix has shown he can convert the plays around the proverbial rim. He’s hit a couple of deep 3-pointers, including the flea-flicker completion to Josh Reynolds on Sunday. But until the rookie quarterback and the offense can begin knocking down a few more open mid-range jumpers, the Broncos’ struggles reaching the end zone early this season aren’t going away.
(Photo: Justin Edmonds / Getty Images)
