Although the Bills said they wanted to win, their actions during the 23-16 loss to the Patriots spoke far louder than anything. Their true top priority was to keep their critical players healthy for the playoffs, and they accomplished exactly that in Week 18.
Josh Allen took his ceremonial first snap before turning the keys over to backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, and the Bills only used six normal starters for longer than a single snap. Even with a loss that cost the franchise its first-ever 14-win regular season, the Bills are heading into the playoffs with full health.
They’ve got a date with the No. 7 Denver Broncos to open up the postseason. So, what are some of the biggest questions about the Bills heading into the playoffs?
Let’s dig in.
Who are the most important Bills players not named Josh Allen?
Allen is, of course, the headliner, but a handful of supporting positions could dictate just how far the Bills go in the playoffs this year. From a source of strength, none comes to mind more than the Bills’ offensive line. The Bills smartly rested all five starters against the Patriots and will go into the postseason with the entire group intact. They have been one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season and a huge reason why the Bills have taken the leap on offense. Their dominance as pass blockers has helped Allen reach new heights as a quarterback. Their outstanding run blocking has also turned the Bills into a true dual-threat offense. If that group stays healthy and plays at its current level, the offense has every chance to continue its torrid pace in the postseason.
Considering players who could swing some matchups with their play, two come to mind — defensive end Greg Rousseau and linebacker Matt Milano. Rousseau has one of the highest ceilings on defense, and when he is winning as a pass rusher, the Bills are so much more dangerous. Their pass rush has been a big question all year, but if he wins his matchups this postseason, it will go a long way to helping that unit.
On the second level, should linebacker Matt Milano find his footing and regain some of his pre-injury speed, he represents someone who could dramatically alter the Bills’ defense for the better. The film in the last two games clearly shows a player who is a step ahead in his instincts and recognition. With how the linebacker position has struggled for much of the year, Milano’s resurgence would help them solve one of their biggest defensive deficiencies.
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What is the Bills’ most significant concern on defense?
In previous postseasons, the Bills’ defense has been considered a source of strength. And while they have shown the ability to force turnovers this year, there are more questions than we’ve seen in previous playoffs. Their bend-but-don’t-break style has played with fire in some matchups. Two significant ones come to mind with how things have been trending this season.
The first has been an up-and-down problem all season long that they haven’t solved — their run defense. We have seen some games throughout the year where they completely shut down an opponent’s rushing attack while it’s still a close game (see: Seahawks, Lions games). But it has been far too inconsistent all year, and much of it comes down to what happens with their front seven. Excluding Week 18, the Bills have been among the worst of the playoff teams in two noteworthy categories.
Of all postseason clubs, the Bills have allowed the second-most yards before contact per rush this year at 1.95. They trail only the Lions at 3.18 yards. The Bills are also the second-worst playoff team in yards allowed per rush after contact, giving up 3.7 yards per carry. Only the Rams, at 4.94 per rush, are worse. The Bills need more out of their defensive tackles and starting linebackers because they are sure to see several teams with good offensive lines and a commitment to testing the Bills on the ground early and often.
The other issue that has come into focus over the season’s final month is the Bills’ third down defense. It was at its worst from Weeks 14 through 17 against the Rams, Lions, Patriots and Jets. Over those four matchups, the Bills allowed 74.3 percent of passes to be completed and a passer rating of 133.1 on third down. Even worse, the Bills allowed a whopping 9.9 yards per attempt on third downs — nearly a first down for every pass — over those four games, which spanned 35 pass attempts. The only team worse over those four weeks was the Titans, who hold the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
In previous years, the Bills have tried to make their identity on third down to keep everything in front of them, but opponents have been getting behind that wall of defenders along the first down line. While not exactly the trend you want to see if you’re that team heading into the postseason, there is at least one plausible explanation for it. The Bills were without both starting safeties and one of their starting cornerbacks for two of those games. But that’s only two matchups. It’s a question they must find an answer to against potent playoff offenses.
Barring early upsets, the Bills are on a path to face the Ravens in the playoffs. (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
What is their best and worst playoff path?
It took until the early evening Week 18 window for the Bills to find out their wild-card round opponent, but the Broncos successfully defended home field against the Chiefs’ backups to secure the No. 7 seed. That set up the Bills to host the Broncos for the opening round, giving the Bills a chance to begin their Super Bowl chase against a rookie quarterback. While Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has certainly exceeded his rookie year expectations, the Bills’ record against inexperienced quarterbacks under head coach Sean McDermott has been sterling since he arrived in 2017. Of all the Bills’ potential opening opponents, the Broncos, who have lost six of their seven games against playoff opponents that weren’t resting their starters this year, it’s an ideal matchup.
From there, all eyes will be on the No. 3 Ravens, who, despite being home next week, will have a difficult matchup against the No. 6 seed Steelers. While yes, the Steelers are on a four-game losing streak entering the postseason, you can throw everything out the window when the Steelers and Ravens square off in their bitter rivalry. The Steelers defeated the Ravens in Week 11, while the Ravens beat the Steelers in Week 16. Not only would it eliminate the Ravens from the postseason and out of the Bills’ path, but it would give the Bills the winner of the Texans and Chargers, which would provide the Bills a great look at getting to the AFC Championship for the first time since the 2020 season.
If the Ravens were to advance past the wild-card round, it would set up what would likely be the premiere contest of the NFL divisional round between the Bills and Ravens in Buffalo. The matchup would pit the top two MVP candidates in a win-or-go-home scenario while giving the Bills a chance to avenge their worst loss of the 2024 season. Even including the Bills’ Week 18 loss to the Patriots, the only time they lost by more than one score all season was to the Ravens in Week 4 — a completely lopsided affair that left the Bills searching for answers on both sides of the ball.
The Bills are a far different team than their Week 4 showing, and they’ll benefit from playing at home. But this is also a far different and more offensively potent Ravens team than the last time these franchises met in the playoffs. With the ever-impressive Todd Monken as the offensive coordinator, the Bills are unlikely to shut down the Ravens as they did in Buffalo in the divisional round four years ago when they held Jackson and his teammates to only three points. If the Bills made it to the AFC Championship Game after defeating the Ravens, no one could challenge their Super Bowl legitimacy.
Can Josh Allen finally get the Bills past the Chiefs?
Whichever the path, if the Bills make it to the AFC Championship Game, it appears extremely likely they would be on a collision course with the No. 1 Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chiefs will have rested all of their top players for two straight weeks before competing in the divisional round, and the only teams they could take on while the Bills are still alive would be the No. 4 Texans, the No. 5 Steelers/Chargers or the No. 6 Steelers/Chargers. They are 4-0 against those three teams this season. The Chargers might be the best hope to upset them, as they have played the Chiefs in very tight matchups over the last five years, though the Chargers haven’t beaten them since 2021.
With how Josh Allen has unlocked a new level of play this season, there is little doubt that this year’s team represents their best chance of finally getting past the Chiefs and the Bills into the Super Bowl for the first time since the early 1990s. But without question, the Chiefs are the final boss of an impossibly difficult video game that has made the Bills go back to the drawing board in their team building time after time. But beating the Chiefs in the playoffs is the only thing they have left to do against their postseason rivals. They’ve beaten Kansas City multiple times in the regular season at Arrowhead. This year, they defeated Patrick Mahomes at Highmark Stadium for the first time. After the Chiefs ended the Bills’ stadium in Orchard Park last year, they’d certainly like to return the serve and be the team to dash their hopes of a three-peat.
If they’re going to do it, it will all be on the shoulders of Allen playing within himself, the same way he has all season long. He is playing the best football of his career, and showing the ability to defeat any defense a team presents him with either by patience, his huge arm, his scrambling ability. Some of the defensive issues of the Bills this year, which are unlike the Bills teams with more defensive prowess in previous years, could force Allen and the offense to be the reason that they finally move forward to the Super Bowl.
(Top photo of Josh Allen: Nic Antaya / Getty Images)
