It’s apple-picking season in the Midwest. But it’s also winner-picking season for The Athletic’s Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg and Browns beat writer Zac Jackson. Or so they say.
GREENBERG (2-3 last week, 13-12 overall): There I was at the Weirton (W. Va.) Holiday Inn (ask for Brad, he’ll hook you up), on top of the world, nursing a Yuengling at the bar and watching Alabama-Georgia play for the over. Of course, I didn’t include that game in my bets last week, but I promise you, I placed it.
I spent the weekend back home, in the cradle of lost parlays and three-team teasers, and I had a traditionally up-and-down experience betting football. I should’ve taken Big Red over Wheeling Park, but you can’t stress about the bets you didn’t make.
I did like my Army bet and I told you the Bengals would cover. In another bet I made that wasn’t in my picks last week, I had a free odds boost with a $20 max and so I placed a parlay, which I argue you should (almost) never do. I took Baltimore -2.5 and over 47.5 and I went to bed when it was 35-10. That was the score when I woke up. And that, my friends, is why you don’t bet parlays.
What’s new in your world of watching the Browns suck?
JACKSON (3-3 last week, 13-13 overall): In Week 17, the Sunday night game is slated to be Dolphins at Browns. I feel like it’s going to get flexed to Sunday morning on C-SPAN.
There will still be a line, so we’ll still be here breaking it down.
I’m breaking routine this week and starting with a Thursday night special. I like the Falcons -1.5 at home vs. Tampa Bay, which is off a big win over the maddeningly inconsistent Eagles and now on the road on a short week. I expect a close, ugly one — but I think the Falcons are pretty good on defense and good enough overall to get out of here with a win and get our weekend on to bigger and better plays.
GREENBERG: I’m making dinner for the second night of Rosh Hashanah, so I’ll make sure I have it on.
Here’s a Friday game I’m wrestling with: UNLV -6.5 against visiting Syracuse. The Rebels got The Athletic feature treatment this week and I’m workshopping that’s a curse (which is to say, when journalists feature a team that hit its peak early. See: the 2023 Colorado football team). Syracuse is 3-1 with wins over powerhouses Georgia Tech and Ohio University, but this is their first road game. Then again, what kind of home-field advantage do the Rebels have? I’ll take the Orange getting +6.5, but I’m going to wait to bet it to see if it goes up to +7.
There are some classic Big Ten matchups this week like USC-Minnesota, but how about those fightin’ Hoosiers on the shores of Lake Michigan at Northwestern? Can anyone get me four tickets for that game? As I write this, Indiana is -13.5 and I’ll take it. I actually saw Kurtis Rourke lose in Evanston back in 2021, but this Hoosiers team is slightly better than a bad Bobcats squad fresh off the retirement of Frank Solich.
And lastly, I’m sticking with Army -12.5 over Tulsa. The Black Knights also possibly got cursed by The Athletic this week, but I’m riding with them until the wheels fall off the tank.
JACKSON: I definitely found that UNLV game interesting on my first run through of the list, but that’s a pass for me. Four quarters of Browns-Raiders was more than enough Las Vegas football for me.
The start of conference season in college usually leads to some strange results, so I’m proceeding with caution. I’ll let you watch Indiana-Northwestern, and I’ll start with some other ugliness in a traditional Big Ten rivalry. I want under 41.5 in Michigan-Washington. I lean toward Washington, too, but I feel better about under 41.5. I think it might be 13-10.
I want over 61.5 in Central Florida-Florida, I want Cal +10.5 against Miami (Fla.) and over 64 in Texas Tech-Arizona. If I had to pick one MAC game I’d probably hold my nose and take Akron +15 at home vs. Bowling Green, but I think I’m able to walk away from that one.
Since I just checked my Saturday social calendar and it’s pretty empty, I’ll add West Virginia +3 at Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have been a top-20 team in rushing success rate on both sides of the ball and the Cowboys have struggled in those areas, while turning over the ball against decent competition.
GREENBERG: I love going through your college football picks to see which ones go dramatically awry, like taking South Florida +5.5 against Tulane last week only to watch them lose 45-10.
I also love that this is the second year the Bears and Panthers have played each other after the fleecing Ryan Poles did of them before the 2023 draft. Then again, if Carolina drafted C.J. Stroud instead of Bryce Young, we’d be talking about this trade a little differently. Even so, the Panthers still owe the Bears a second-rounder next year and I believe someone’s first-born son in 2027. Chicago got right last week against the Rams at home and they’ll win by 10 this week on the lakefront. Take Da Bears -3.5.
I’m digging the Vikings -2.5 at home against their old friend Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Minnesota’s perfect start will falter soon, but not this week. Speaking of Rodgers, I’m reading Ian O’Connor’s book right now and it’s pretty good so far. A quick football season read.
Lastly, I’ll go with the Bills -1 at Houston. One thing that worries me is Houston hasn’t covered a game yet, so it’s due. But I’m guessing Buffalo will pretty focused after getting crushed last week in Baltimore. That’s the kind of high-end analysis our readers get.
JACKSON: Man, the Browns stink. But I actually like Cleveland +3.5 against the Commanders this week because I expect a better offensive performance and yet still think they’re capable of losing in heartbreaking and mind-numbing fashion at the end.
The Steelers coming off a loss should beat up the overrated and banged-up Cowboys. Pittsburgh -2.5 probably my favorite NFL play of the week, though I fully plan on starting 1-0 Thursday night.
I’m not sure the Bears should be favored by more than a field goal and I lean toward the Texans, but I’m fine sticking to three NFL plays unless you can sell me on anything else.
GREENBERG: I won’t be recommending any Caleb Williams props again, that’s for sure. (Which means he’ll throw for 300 and three touchdowns this Sunday.) But how about one more college play, Clemson -14.5 over Florida State?
JACKSON: I think I’d rather find a Bowling Green-Akron feed.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Sam Darnold: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
