The heart of the Edmonton Oilers roster — Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — are in their late 20s. Those two men are surrounded by players who are in their 30s, especially in the feature roles on the team.
The only men on the Oilers roster who play a prominent position and are mid-20s are Evan Bouchard (25) and Stuart Skinner (26).
None of that is out of time with the rest of the NHL. A team with a strong chance to win the Stanley Cup will often have a large swath of the roster in the age 28-32 range.
Players peak around 25, and by 30 are nearing a performance cliff that can see their role change in a hurry.
NHL teams protect themselves against the erosion of key players by keeping a large group of youngsters on the roster or with the minor-league affiliate. Those men, aged 20-24, are usually value contracts (most under $1 million, none over $3 million) and capable of stepping up into a feature role when required.
The problem in Edmonton is that very few players match that description at this time.
Currently, Ty Emberson (24), Vasily Podkolzin (23) and Matt Savoie (just turned 21) are the only NHL roster players under 25. Savoie is the only rookie on the team this season, and he’s played in just three games.
The Oilers are vulnerable. The 28-32 “heart of the order” roster players need more than three men 20-24 pushing for ice time. Now that Savoie is in the NHL, what’s bubbling under?
The prospect pool
The Oilers have one of the poorest prospect pipelines in the NHL. Corey Pronman at The Athletic rated Edmonton No. 30 last summer, while Scott Wheeler at The Athletic slotted the Oilers No. 29 last month.
The organization is running out of playable and or tradeable assets. The current quality and depth of the system is the kind of talent pool normally seen when viewing a team like the current Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins have an older foundation (Sidney Crosby is 37, Evgeni Malkin is 38) and a substandard pool of prospects.
That’s the cost of three Stanley Cup victories during the period when future Hall of Famers like Crosby and Malkin led the team to glory over a 20-year period. The investment of future assets at consecutive trade deadlines landed three championship seasons and a happy fan base.
The Oilers? Few prospects, and zero championships. The clock is ticking on the careers of McDavid and Draisaitl.
Emberson a key
Savoie is in the first year of his three-year entry deal, and Podkolzin has one more year on his $1 million AAV deal. Both men are signed for next season and will be two of the value contracts on the Oilers in 2025-26.
Emberson is a restricted free agent this summer, with arbitration rights. He will reach full free agency in the summer of 2027.
He’s a key young player for Edmonton for several reasons, the most obvious being the lack of youth on the roster.
Emberson won’t be expensive on his next contract and he brings a range of skills. Here’s a look at his speed:
| Stat | Emberson | NHL Avg |
|---|---|---|
|
Top speed kph |
36.14 |
34.64 |
|
Bursts over 32kph |
33 |
22.5 |
Via NHL Edge at NHL.com
The numbers for Emberson are well above average. The Oilers are a speedy team overall, but Emberson is the fastest at his position.
Among the right-handed defencemen on the team, Emberson’s top skating speed (36.14 kph) ranks ahead of Evan Bouchard (35.44), Troy Stecher (34.18) and John Klingberg (31.68).
His young legs have been especially helpful on the penalty kill, where his GA-60 ranks No. 1 among Oilers regulars in the discipline.
Puck IQ
Puck IQ “bins” quality of competition and gives us a unique view of a player’s deployment against elite, mid- and lower-level competition.
Emberson plays 24 percent of his five-on-five time versus elite competition. That’s third pairing, and a terrific spot for a young defenceman finding his way in the NHL. His results against the league’s best (47.9 percent Dangerous Fenwick, minus-9 percent relative to other Oilers blue) are within the window of expected based on usage and experience.
His results against mid- and low-level talent are impressive, and his overall DFF percentage (53.5) suggests a young player who can move up the depth chart in the years to come.
The eye test and the Puck IQ math tell us Emberson is improving. As he gains more experience, he should be able to take on more minutes from the older players on the team.
What’s next?
Imagine the current situation one year from now, with Emberson capable of playing second-pair minutes.
He’ll be on a value contract, possibly playing a feature role at five-on-five (he’s already there on the penalty kill) and a big part of Edmonton’s future.
The cost for Emberson (Cody Ceci and a third-round pick in the 2025 draft) will have been well worth it if the team can sign him, and Emberson continues to develop.
It’s impossible to say the club will have completely recovered from the Philip Broberg offer sheet, but if Emberson can emerge as the solution on the second pair right side general manager Stan Bowman will have delivered in an important area.
The Oilers organization took a hit last summer when Broberg and Dylan Holloway left via offer sheets. The loss of complementary players who could grow into prominent roles set the team back significantly. It can be seen on the ice during the team’s current struggles.
It behooves Bowman to sign Emberson and set a new course with the handling of young players during the contract process.
The NHL is changing, with agents for young players finding a new revenue option via the offer sheet.
Emberson is arbitration eligible, so the Oilers will sign him before the fall (unless Emberson is dealt at the deadline, which seems a distant bell).
However, Bouchard is eligible for an offer sheet, and the team is vulnerable in that area. The huge increase in cap dollars would seem to reduce the risk of an unmatchable offer for Bouchard, but getting him under contract before the window opens for offer sheets would be a wise move.
Signing Emberson is another key move for the Oilers.
Signing both would go a long way to solving a youth issue on the team.
A team that is aging across the roster could enter the fall with Bouchard and Emberson as strong options on right defence and prospect Beau Akey pushing up from the AHL Bakersfield Condors in 2025-26.
Bowman needs to build up the roster with young players capable of taking on key roles in the future.
Emberson could represent the tip of the spear for an organization that badly needs to show it has learned the lesson of leaving itself vulnerable to a ravenous NHL in constant search of quality youth.
The Oilers have none to spare.
(Photo: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)
