Vikings-Rams preview, predictions: Can Kevin O'Connell get the better of Sean McVay?

EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — Longtime Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith swiftly exited the locker room after Sunday’s loss to the Detroit Lions. It was like he was trying to put the game behind him as quickly as possible.

Fortunately for him, he’ll be able to. The Vikings traveled to Los Angeles on Wednesday before “Thursday Night Football” against the Rams. The game marks the first matchup between Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell since they won a Super Bowl together following the 2021 season.

What kind of test will the Rams present? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

Final #MINvsLAR injury report

OUT: Blake Cashman

QUESTIONABLE: Akayleb Evans, T.J. Hockenson* and Dalton Risner*

*Returned to Practice – Currently within 21-day practice window pic.twitter.com/j9hOyq05Nj

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 23, 2024

What I’m watching

Lewis: The Vikings defense. How will Brian Flores’ unit respond after looking as bad as it has all season? Last Sunday, the Lions generated the highest explosive-play rate of any offense against Flores since he became the Vikings’ defensive coordinator in 2023. That hints at an outlier-type performance by one of the NFL’s best coordinators and offenses. Still, Minnesota won’t have linebacker Blake Cashman for a second straight week. And this Rams offense, especially with Cooper Kupp active, is capable of moving the football. Can the Vikings exploit the interior of the Rams offensive line? The Vikings’ pressure packages must fluster the Rams’ front and quarterback Matthew Stafford to win.

Krawczynski: Timberwolves at Kings. I’ll be in Sacramento, not L.A., for the Jordan McLaughlin revenge game, so I will have to watch the purple (Vikings, not Kings) later Thursday night or Friday. In all seriousness, though, I’ll be watching the defense, too, to see how it bounces back after getting humbled by the Lions. The Rams are banged up and struggling, so it seems like a good opportunity for the Vikings to take some of their frustrations out after Jared Goff sliced and diced them Sunday. In these quick turnaround games, it’s up to the defense to set the tone. It might be a low-scoring, sloppy affair. Andrew Van Ginkel, Harrison Smith, Stephon Gilmore and company will need to bring it.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: McVay. He’s one of the best coaches in the NFL. The Rams might be 2-4, but they beat the San Francisco 49ers a month ago and took the Lions to overtime in Week 1. Schematically, especially on offense, the Rams will be sound. They’ll utilize creative jet sweeps. They’ll hand the ball to running back Kyren Williams and vertically move defenders off the line of scrimmage. McVay will deploy tempo to keep the Vikings in specific personnel groupings. Their offense still has the potential to be one of the most efficient in the NFL. This is a nationally televised game and a spot where the Vikings are more of the darling. McVay will likely channel that into motivation for his group, and that worries me a bit.

Krawczynski: Aaron Jones on a short week. He looked great against the Lions: spry, quick and back to his old self. But it’s not ideal for him to have to play so quickly again, not at his age and not with that tender hamstring. The Vikings offense is so much more formidable with Jones as a featured weapon. If he is limited, that makes things much tougher. But if he is full go, that is asking a lot of his body to heal up and get back at it.

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Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Sam Darnold vs. Stafford. There is zero truth to the Stafford-to-Minnesota trade rumor that surfaced earlier this week, but O’Connell respects Stafford a ton. They won a Super Bowl together, so that helps, and Stafford’s field vision, creativity and toughness have helped him thrive in the NFL for a long time. O’Connell also admires Darnold for what he has overcome to remain in the NFL and produce the way he has this season. Darnold, a Southern California native, will have friends and family in attendance Thursday night. Can he keep a quiet mind and perform the way the Vikings need him to? A young and hungry Rams front led by edges Jared Verse and Byron Young will be after him, and defensive tackle Kobie Turner will provide an interior push. Darnold will have to get rid of the ball quickly and prevent silly turnovers that could shift the game script.

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Krawczynski: Will Reichard vs. Josh Karty. These kinds of games can often come down to which kicker is up for a heavy workload. Reichard has been a rock star early on for the Vikings: ultra-reliable from any distance and seemingly unflappable in big moments. Karty has been dealing with some injuries, including a groin issue that contributed to his struggles last week when he missed a 35-yard field goal try and an extra point. If it comes down to kicking, Will the Thrill gives the Vikings an edge.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: O’Connell matching up with McVay. These two revere each other, but they’re also absurdly competitive, and this is their first time facing off as head coaches. Can O’Connell, who this past week attributed so much of his approach to building a team culture to McVay, knock off his former boss? It’s not as simple as that. The players will decide the game, and the ball will bounce in wobbly ways that will dictate the outcome. But there is no doubt that these are two men at the top of their field who have learned from each other and believe many of the same things. At the very least, the winner will exit with bragging rights they’ll unquestionably hold against the other on their next family vacation.

Krawczynski: How the Vikings handle their first real adversity of the season. They played well for the most part against Detroit. Nothing to hang your head about in going right down to the wire against one of the best teams in the NFL. Now, how will they respond? Even great teams lose games during a long season. The key is regrouping and not letting one loss become two. The coaching staff has been on top of things all season, so there is no doubt that O’Connell has a plan ready for this short week. If they rebound and win Thursday, it will set up a nice extended break before a winnable home game against the Indianapolis Colts on Nov. 3. Momentum is right there to be had if they can handle their business.

GO DEEPER

Even with some questions, the Vikings have been off to a strong start

How they match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive-play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule metric:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 23, Rams 17. This will likely be an extraordinarily tough test. Short week, travel, time change, good coaching staff, etc. It all adds up to an immense challenge. In the end, the Vikings’ passing game will have something to prove, and the Rams have not fared well against the pass this year. Maybe this is the eye-popping performance Justin Jefferson has been hoping for.

Krawczynski: Vikings 16, Rams 9. These Thursday night games are usually abominations, crimes against humanity that this football-addicted country just cannot ignore. This might have been a letdown candidate had Minnesota beaten Detroit, but the loss should refocus the Vikings enough to grind through the slog and take down the Rams.

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(Photo: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)